Saturday, August 04, 2007

WSJ looks back at some of the previous bullish comments by insiders

Reading today's local newspaper I see that Beazer slashed $100,000 off some of their homes. I would be very upset if I lived in on of these neighborhoods.

Here is a report from this mornings that takes a look at some of the previous, BS, er.. bullish comments made by industry insiders.


Recently, the nation's largest home builder, D.R. Horton Inc., reported the first quarterly loss in its 15-year history as a public company.

Yet, only two years ago, Donald Tomnitz, Horton's chief executive, declared confidently: "We can earn our way through any economic cycle, except one like the Great Depression." The Great Depression hasn't hit -- but Horton's earnings have declined more severely than most anyone imagined.

Another big home builder, Beazer Homes USA Inc., was beset by rumors the past week that it might be filing for bankruptcy-law protection. Beazer firmly denies the rumors. Still, housing analysts are fretting that banks will clamp down on lending to some builders -- squeezing them of cash just when they might need it.

In theory, this should have let builders buy land only when they needed it, while giving them the right to walk away if they didn't need it. The builders would also be helped by the overall scarcity of developable lots in many markets, Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim wrote in a bullish March 2006 research report.

"The linchpin to our bullish thesis has been the emergence of land constraints," Mr. Kim wrote at the time. "This will allow the builders to outperform expectations in any given demand scenario."


rrastronomo said...

crispy what beazer developement?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I threw out the newspaper. I think it was the development near Buena Vista and Panama Lane.

Raynor said...

I really think it is across the board when a large national like Beazer does these price reductions to reduce inventory.

It will affect all their subdivisions such as the one off Reina Road not just limited to Buena Vista and Panama, etc..

Peahippo said...

BS = Bullish Statement
» Bullshi Statement
» Bullshi [POOF!]t
» Bullshit[ZIIIIP!]

They was always bullshit buried in those statements.

xs10shell said...

Let's handle it like we do agriculture. a) subsidies - pay developers NOT to develop and builders NOT to build; b) buy the surplus housing and re-distribute it to the needy (or plow it under); or c) declare the Central Valley a (economic) disaster area and make everyone eligible for low-interest loans and other emergency programs. Alternatively, there is the airline bailout model...

Realestateslasher said...

Agents also need subsidies we can't
forget we need a seat at the
Dinner table

Raynor said...

Slash: The saddest thing to me is what C&C have done to the reputation of RE Agents.

Everyone just presumes RE agents are rich and make easy money. Neither of course is true in any way. Some are rich, but they work all kinds of wierd hours, put up with even wierder people, and THEY EARN THEIR $$!

Many are now lumping them all in with David and even Carl and its not fair. I think the ones that should be most PO'd at C&C are their fellow agents.