Sunday, February 18, 2007

Wasco and Lamont the place to invest?

This has to go down as one of the worst cheer leading article ever written in the LA Times:

Central Valley home prices play catch-up

By Diane Wedner, Times Staff WriterFebruary 18, 2007

Who says home-price appreciation is screeching to a halt all over California?

Those who don't know about Wasco, that's who. Located 139 miles north of Los Angeles near Bakersfield and dubbed the Rose Capital of the Nation, the city ranked No. 1 in the state for home-price appreciation in 2006, according to data of areas with more than 100 sales compiled by a La Jolla-based research firm.

Prices of resale homes in that Central Valley ZIP Code of 93280 jumped 53.7% from the year before, DataQuick Information Services reported. The bad news is that the number of sales dropped 34.8% year over year in that ZIP Code.

The median price was $207,500, up from $135,000 in 2005.

And then there's Lamont's 93241 ZIP, ranked second. Just south of Bakersfield, the city of 13,296 saw median home-price gains of 52% compared with 2005 — from $125,000 to $190,000.

"The Central Valley is doing some catch-up," said John Karevoll, DataQuick's chief analyst.

These are two of the poorest communities in Kern County! I wish all the investors who are driving up prices in Wasco and Lamont the best of luck - I will update in a year when prices have dropped significantly. These two areas have median household incomes of less than $30,000 and cannot sustain these price level - Guaranteed!


Mozo Maz said...

Well if you get priced out of Wasco, there's always Taft, Maricopa, Shafter and McFarland. I hear they're not making any more land there.

Woo hoo! Kern county exurbs for everyone!

Anonymous said...

I hear they serve delicious Rat Kabobs in Lamont. yummy..umm

Perfect Storm said...

Buying in these places at prices eight times above the median income is financial suicide. When the recession hits these places home values will crater. The poor souls who bought and later will need to move in order to make their next buck will be so upside down they will have no choice but to leave the keys on the counter and leave the house to the bank.

AnalysisGuy said...

There is still no sanity in this market. We have a long way to go. I was just talking with my cousin and they said there thinking of getting a "nice lot" in Porterville but want the guy to come down at least $5K. The price....$189,000! Yes in Porterville - Tulare County - the sixth poorest county in the US.

I pleaded with them to wait, time will tell....

AnalysisGuy said...

I heard a statistic on a radio talk show the other day and I couldn't believe it. The topic was the California "land crunch" and the commenter made the point that if you took every California households and gave them each 1/2 acre they could fit in Kern County! That seemed insane to me, so I did some quick research and math. Here's what I found

1 square mile = 640 acres

Kern County = 8141 sq mi = 5.2 million acres = 10.4 million 1/2 acre parcels

California = 12.0 million households (roughly - based on 11.5 million in 2000)

While the stat wasn't exactly right, every California household could have "nearly" a half acre lot in Kern County. Anyhow, I thought it was fun stat to through around to realto-whores whenever they talk about our California "land shortage".

isthereabubble said...


I guess this means the "making no more land" Realtors scare tactic doesen't apply to Kern.
Excellent post.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Analysis guy-

LMAO. So they are not making anymore land, but we have enough for the whole state!

Do you follow inventory very closely? I am expecting the next 60 days to see a significant increase.

Anonymous said...

how many homes are on the market as of now?

Bakersfield Bubble said...


AnalysisGuy said... shows 4389 today but that includes nearly 700 homes in "outlining" areas...

By the way, my prediction - the number rehits 5,000 (it topped 5,200 last fall) within 2 months...