Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Final 2006 Permit Numbers

From comes a report on the city budget running short due to a decrease in building permit revenues. What did you guys do with the last 4 years of record permits? Were the funds wasted on buying the City staff lavish new office buildings owned by well connected locals? I love the way city officials try to scare us with news of less police and fire staff:

* Residential building permits are down 54 percent compared to the same time last year, meaning less revenue in the myriad fees associated with the planning process such as park development and traffic impact fees.

Let's say there's one police officer assigned to your neighborhood, but rising graffiti and gang violence seem to warrant at least another. Will another be coming?

Not likely, according to a new city budget forecast.

The spending plan for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1, will challenge department heads used to flush budgets in recent years, City Manager Alan Tandy is telling them.

The current city budget totals a record $520 million. But declining sales tax, building permit fees and other revenue means departments like police, recreation and parks and fire will be hard-pressed to hire any new personnel throughout the next fiscal year.

That leads me to the details of the final permit numbers for 2006. These are the record amounts the city has chosen to waste and not sock away for the future downturn. Maybe they thought this bubble would go on for 10 more years?

Permits per year:
2006 4,238
2005 6,061
2004 4,997
2003 4.328
2002 3,563

2006 Top five list by builder:
1. Lennar 1,033
2. Owner/Builder 511
3. Centex 391
4. DR Horton 288
5. Pulte 283

What happens to job growth when the level of permits drops this drastically? My guess on permits for 2007 is 3,200.


AnalysisGuy said...

I'm not sure if you get the free newspaper "The Southwest Voice", but here are some interesting notes about Bakersfield housing:

"Developer Carl Cole said he'd like to have the project (University Towers) done by 2010. It's estimated to cost $350 million to $400 million... Cole said the company so far invested $3 million toward the project."

And in a separate article: "The Bakersfield Planning Commission gave the OK to tentative maps for more than 850 new homes, many of them in the Southwest..."

But don't worry no overbuilding going on here! And 2010 for the Bakersfield towers! You've got to be kidding! I think they'll built about the same time the bullet train comes to town!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I think they'll built about the same time the bullet train comes to town!


One of the crisp&cole kids was trying to sell me on some property and she was using the bullet train as the pitch.