Monday, September 25, 2006

Permits Plummet 60%

August 2006 permit numbers are out. The number of permits pulled in August 2006 was down 60% from August 2005.

290 permits pulled August 2006

726 permits pulled August 2005

Top 5:

Lennar 109
Centex 37
Builder/Owner 35
Calif Homes 12
Hardt Homes 10

A few more months like this and that could mean less contractors needed, less pick-up trucks purchased, less big screen tv purchased...


Rob Dawg said...

410,000 people. 140,000 homes. 300 permits suggests 0.5% home formation.

Believe it or not that is "normal" in normal circumstances. Unfotunately this is not normal but a data point on the way off the cliff.

Understand also that permits are not housing starts. Permits are the free part. Housing starts involve actually paying the municipality.

When is the next C&C CSUB payment due?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Agree that this data is now normal. However, as you have stated, the trend is not their friend.

The permits are an excellent indicator of future construction and employment activity. The way this is declining is not a good indicator.

I am going to forward you the full pdf report (1 page) with the commentary.

Idaho_Spud said...

But I thought that "Bakersfield was so cheap compared to the rest of California".

Surely everyone still wants to flock here from elsewhere!

Or (perish the thought) has it just been that 27% of local purchases have been by speculators all along?

Lou Minatti said...

Sorry, Bakersfield. You'll keep dropping until the average shitbox sells for about $140k. That's in line with similar areas around the country.

Rob Dawg said...

Awww, Lou. You just don't "get" Bakersfield. There are no areas in the rest of the country like Bf.

"Bakersfield; 3 hours from everything."

"Bakersfield; Fresno Weather, Oxnard culture, Sacramento politics and Los Angels prices all in one place."

incessant_din said...

Excellent work, Robert. That is a perfect slogan for Bakersfield.

But does Bakersfield not offer something to San Francisco transplants to feel at home? Are there no vagrants? No flamboyant businessmen? Well, I guess there is D. Crisp.

Rob Dawg said...

After reading my email (thanks) I suddenly realized I just don't know Bakersfield the way the local cheerleaders do. I guess I'll just have to drive up there and slap down a deposit on my City in the Hills mansion as attonment.

Anonymous said...

I just don't know Bakersfield the way the local cheerleaders do.

People are actually trying to justify the place? No doubt they're using the ever-popular "it's a sh*thole, but it's our sh*thole" argument.

Bakersfieldians: wake up and smell the refried beans. It's over.

lainvestorgil said...

I've been desperate enough to get out of the SFV with my kids that I've actually vacationed to Bakersfield (stop laughing at me!) and I can attest to the following (family friendly) attractions: a really good Basque restaurant, Dupar's ice cream parlor, a 2$ re-run movie theatre, plenty of parking, Boomer's, 40$ per night at the best hotel in the city, malls where there are white shoppers and you can actually afford to buy stuff, friendly cops, and easy parking. Also, it was an easy drive, less than one and a half hours. On the downside, it's hotter than hell in the summer, you can get trapped there if the Grapevine gets snowed in, the Mexicans park more pickup trucks on the front lawns there than they do even in Van Nuys, and there are chickens running around in certain particularly slummy parts of town.