Tuesday, September 12, 2006


Greed, speculation helped overheat housing market: Toll CEO
By John Spence
Last Update: 11:27 AM ET Sep 12, 2006

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL: 27.95, +1.33, +5.0% ) Chief Executive Robert Toll said the U.S. housing market got ahead of itself due to greed on the part of buyers and sellers, and that it now likely faces the highest level of speculative inventory ever. Toll said the current downturn is unique in his experience because it wasn’t driven by a “macro-event” although interest rates have risen steadily. “Every day there’s an article about how lousy housing is now and how dumb you have to be to buy a house now,” the CEO said Tuesday at the Credit Suisse Homebuilders Symposium. “I don’t know what it will take to turn this market — it could take two years, or it could take someone getting quoted in the New York Times saying the market has hit bottom.”



Rob Dawg said...

...or it could take someone getting quoted in the New York Times saying the market has hit bottom.”
And who will bell the cat? Doesn't matter, anyone saying we've hit bottom anytime in the next two years will be considered a cheerleader even if as early as 18 months from now they are correct.

But that's beside the point. What is this New York Times thingy he mentions? Some come lately blog that no one reads or trusts? Same organization that depends on real estate adverstising revenue for its' existence? The place where they reviewed David Lereah's book favorably?

i've been predicting the course for a couple of years now and done pretty good. I'm not even ready to call a glancing blow on a balcony on the way down or how many floors are left to go nevermind the dead cat bounce at the bottom.

The HBs themselves are a different story than the housing market. Their book value is unrealistic and their by institutions stock holdings are so huge manipulation is inevitable. There are about 3 more shoes to drop. Cancellations, revaluation of assets, options and compensation scandals, mortgage exposure and liability. Tough times even for companies that tried real hard to be ready for this time by preparing to fight the last war.

Anonymous said...

GREAT BLOG! I have read many of your posts in the past on Bens site. I live in Kern County (Lake Isabella) so Bakersfield's market is important to me.

Anyhow, I just wanted to say that you got a good thing going here and I will be visiting it often. If I see anything good...I'll forward it too you.

Bakersfield Bubble said...



Robert -

Have you left us on Ben's blog???