Monday, April 23, 2007

Prices continue to decline

March 2007 numbers are out and the YOY decline is now up to 3.45%

Numbers for California from Data Quick

4 comments:

SLO Bear said...

Kern County - what a bunch of wimps! Don't even call yourselves a bubble county until you see at least -10% YOY. Over here in SLO County is where its at.

Thanks for the tip!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Cambria down 28.5%! Looking for some deals on the central coast might be sooner rather than later...

Adam said...

FWIW, for newbies who aren't used to looking at the data, please remember these are median prices, i.e. the price represented by the middle value reported in the area. In some cities, you'll see (2) sales reported: highly suspicious, and invalid to expect this to be representative.

For example, look at Somis, in Ventura Co: it shows a 255% rise in median! However, notice this figure is derived from the sale of two homes, so remember to look at trends in large cities with more sales (e.g. Oxnard, Ventura, Port Hueneme, etc, are all down, some dropping significantly).

BB, it might be better to wait: this thing is JUST getting started. What we're probably seeing is alot of pullback from the investors, who figured owning a nice retirement home on the coast was a nice idea, but it's not worth taking a bath for one! A bad investment is a bad investment, unless you can justify for other reasons....

I'm betting alot of this action on the Central Coast isn't so much owner-occupied homes selling, but vacation homes, rentals, etc.

IMO, there's still LOTS of fat to chew off these prices, and just wait until the sub-prime/Alt-A meltdown starts to hit.

HOWEVER, the thing to remember there is that tighter credit will prevent buyers from buying what they cannot afford (duh!); this represents 1st-time entry-level buyer, as well as inept specuvestors and would-be flippers (ALA Casey Serin), but NOT the move-up buyer with a good FICO who's already in a home (e.g. someone who has to relocate for work, etc). Therefore, don't be surprised if/when the median figure actually INCREASES in the next few months (with total sales VOLUME continuing to decrease), as the market will pull back from 1st-time buyers.

If this happens, don't be fooled: no doubt, the REIC will use this to trumpet, "see, we told you. You losers who sat on the sidelines should've bought earlier, as prices are STILL going up with or without you!" Nonsense, as numbers WILL fall in the long-run, and people will forget to look at sales VOLUME.

Already, some of these areas are showing $100k off the median Y-2-Y, so that's a great start to the corrrection. And don't forget: CA is in for a BIG-TIME correction....

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"BB, it might be better to wait: this thing is JUST getting started"

Agree! We have a long way to go. I think the credit tightening cycle is only beginning phase, the NOD/Foreclosures are getting worse every month and the affordability index is still out of whack...