Monday, April 16, 2007

Kern County notices of default up 181% YOY

Data Quick News states that Kern County notices of default are up 181% year over year. Kern County went from 461 NOD's in the first quarter of 2006 to 1,297 in the first quarter of 2007.

From DQ News:

California Foreclosure Activity Jumps Again

by Real Estate Analyst John Karevoll-->April 16, 2007

La Jolla, CA.--The number of default notices sent to California homeowners last quarter increased to its highest level in almost ten years, the result of flat appreciation, slow sales, and post teaser-rate mortgage resets, a real estate information service reported.

Lending institutions filed 46,760 Notices of Default (NoDs) during the January-to-March period. That was up by 23.1 percent from a revised 37,994 for the previous quarter, and up 148.0 percent from 18,856 for first-quarter 2006, according to DataQuick Information Systems.


Morgan said...

While the article tends to hint at the fact that these record foreclosure numbers are the result of the peak of ARM originations in 2005 that view is too optimistic. I believe we will set quarterly records for foreclosure notices for the next two quarters at least and maybe in to 2008.

The 2005 and 2006 "vintages" of loans were incredibly lax in underwriting, and while the peak of ARM refinancing was in 2005, they quality of loans didn't reach its bottom until mid-2006.

Another factor is that many home owners will scratch out a few payments at higher levels until their reserves, resources and will power are totally tapped. This can delay the inevitable by up to 60-90 days. So unfortunately I feel this record is not going to stand for very long - it will be reset the next time the number is reported.


Realestateslasher said...

Looks like good times are comming

Bakersfield Bubble said...


I think you are correct. As the $2 trillion plus of mortgages reset in 2007-2008 at much higher rates and payments the weak hands will fold and join the foreclosures ranks.

Rob Dawg said...

The real plug yet to be pulled are the intact investors. Really, there is a whole world of competent risk takers that are about to close out their positions "at market" meaning whatever it takes to sell now. Taking losses is part of reaping profits. On the way down in the tech crash seven years ago these were the people that bought at 10 and missed 100 and supposedly lost out at 60. Do you think they ever cared about those who bought 60-100? I wouldn't

xs10shell said...

I was wondering if a foreign country or investors wanted to literally buy up the US, could they do it by acquiring these failing mortgage companies or subprime sections of banks at a discount?

nosympathy said...

xs10shell you may want to check out the east coast especially Manhatten lots being bought by Arabs with British Passports. Yes its true what they say "The British are coming! The British are coming!! Again well kind of

sexy said...