Saturday, March 10, 2007

Your patience has paid off.




Another home on the golf course at Seven Oaks is is now available at a discounted price.


This home was originally priced at $1,100,000, however, after their open house last week it appears no buyers stepped up to the plate. They have now reduced the price by $100,000. Your patience has paid off!


The address is 2906 Cormier. The property was purchased November 11, 2003 for $576,000.

35 comments:

AnalysisGuy said...

It will be interesting to see how quickly the fall happens in the high end market. At present there are 210 homes in greater Bakersfield listed at $950,000 or more.

Of course Realt-whores will tell you that the rich (of course many of the owners are rich - they're Crispy investors) can afford to wait. While this is true in the very short run, the rich can also afford to take a loss a get the hell out of real estate. That would be the smart move. I suspect by fall we will begin to many more $100K+ price drops in this higher end market.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"210 homes in greater Bakersfield listed at $950,000 or more."

With a lot of the easy credit gone - how long will it take to sell all of these homes? The pool of qualified buyers has shrunk a lot with the credit implosion.

Mozo Maz said...

I suppose Bakersfield is large enough to justify a few affluent areas. But this looks like a $500K, maybe $600K house.

What will Casey Serin's foreclosure on Larchmont street will finally go for? It looked like it was a half step below the CA ranch home posted here a few days ago.

Anonymous said...

Who the hell would spend a million bones to live in Bakerfield aka the armpit of CA?

bobbyj0708 said...

Wrong tense, Crispy. Patience is paying off because this still has a long way to go. "Paid off" intimates that now is the time to buy that overpriced home, which it's clearly not.

Rob Dawg said...

I'll go out on a limb here. Hey, admit it, everytime you've seen me go out on a limb it's turned out that I was just ahead of the curve. This and its ilk will sell again for orignal price or a price from sometime in thw 1990s. Yes, that's a whole freakin lot and worse with inflation. At 10%/week it will only be 6 more weeks. Yeah right. The last bagholders, aka the current owners, already think they are giving you $100k of THEIR money. This albatross is 4 years older and at the current price taxes are $400/month more than they pay. Utilities are at least 50% higher as well. Oh, and it is is in Bakersfield 2007 versus Bakersfield 2003. I'm thinkin' shlubs like me can pick these up for $400k and 25% down and rent for cashflow and do okay after tax deductions but anyone who can actually afford this kind of thing to live in will have their pick of a dozen. That leaves me with my pick of 11. Oh, boo hoo.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"Wrong tense, Crispy."

Agree!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

A home like this would have gone for $350k in 2001, pre-bubble. That was a very reasonable price for a home in this area.

Anonymous said...

This house may sell for its current price or slightly below it. There may be a shortage of affordably priced homes in Bakersfield, but there's no shortage of idiots who still think real estate is the hot asset type. Keep in mind, most buyers are not informed. People reading this blog may be tuned into the ongoing subprime meltdown and homebuilder crises, but for every person who is a prudent, patient investor, there's another who has money to burn.

All that being said, I think the overall market will continue to delcine. Year over year, I wouldn't be surprised to see annual price declines in the double digits for two to three years.

It took us five years to run from the bottom in 99 to the top in 04. It will take a few years to get back to the bottom.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget the low interest rates Rob...That's what's going to make me rich!

~Caddis

Anonymous said...

Do you guys actually think that prices in Bakersfield are going to fall to pre bubble-2001 prices?! I have a hard time believing that they will..I just don't see it....and yes I'm pretty aware of what's going on out there with the the subprime industry and current inventory levels, foreclosure spikes, etc.. and i've also being surfing these blogs too which are a wealth of info by the way.

I just think some of you guys are a little harsh and are taking this whole thing to far. What happened to being just alittle optimistic. I mean it sounds like some of you guys think the end of the freakin' world is coming! Maybe you guys are just bitter cause you got priced out of the market for now. Yes prices are dropping and are going to drop more but it's funny listening to some of the people on here talking about houses that someone paid 275,000 being worth a 100,000 and shit. The days of houses being worth 100,000 are over. If you are waiting for that to happen your going to be waiting forever. Hey don't get me wrong, I hope you guys are right. If that's the case and home prices drop as much as you guys think then I will sell my current home even if I have to take a loss, and pull the 70,000 that I have to put down on that seven oak golf course house that would have dropped another 500,000!!!! Shit maybe I'd buy 2 for the hell of it!

Mozo Maz said...

I don't want to see the end of the world. I just want to see normal lending practice and due diligence return. "You are not qualified" needs to become become a standard part of the business lexicon again.

The whole "You can have it all and you can have it now - zero down moves you in" mentality which has become so pervasive the last decade or so, is sickening. The Housing ATM has made saving a forgotten art.

Thankfully, it looks like the FDIC and the SEC were finally awoken the last few weeks, to realize just how out-of-control it has all become. The excesses are being reigned in.

It will be un unpleasant ride down for many people. But drinking binges come with a hangover. They just do! At some point, you put the bottle down... or you ruin yourself from it.

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with you about the current lending practices..........people are greedy and are buying way over there head and lenders are the cause. I don't see anything wrong with financing 100% even in today's market. If you don'y plan on moving for 5 to 10 years then what's the difference if you put down money or not......only if you can AFFORD TO not put money down. I think what more important is the type of loan. I'm a firm believer that if you can't afford to make the payment with a 15 or 30 year FIXED rate then you can't afford it!!!!!! Too many peeps taking out bullshit loans just so they can qualify for a house they couldn't afford in the first place. Think about it.........if the majority of peeple in the last 4-6 years took out fixed rate mortgages then we wouldn't be seeing all this reseting of loans and crap and people not being able to make their payments...........worst case senerio for fixed rate homeowners in a dropping market...........just stay put for awhile....cause your payment will be unaffected..

Mozo Maz said...

The obvious thing to do in a historically low rate environment... one we hadn't seen since the 1950s... would be to take advantage of the wonderful fixed rates and lock them in.

But we didn't. We used ARMs and neg-am toxic mortgages to bid up prices to triple what they should be. I used to have more faith in my countrymen. Now I think people are mostly impressionable and foolish.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"Do you guys actually think that prices in Bakersfield are going to fall to pre bubble-2001 prices?"

I don't know.

Did thousands of bloggers on Ben and a few other sites makes claims in 2005 that prices were out of line with fundamentals and lendging standards were non-exitant. Did we argue and debate that what is happening right now would occur. Yes on both.

Were we discredited by the media (look for the "there is no bubble
stories")the REIC and academia. Were we mocked in public for not understanding this was a "new paradigm", "this time was different", "the boomers and foreigners", "this boom was built on fundamentals", etc...Yes on both.

Where do we go from here. I am one who does not believe in a depresssion for this country. However, if you have a real esate related job, it will feel like a depression. I think the boom will equal the bust in terms of size.

I think thousands of realtors will go back to whatever they were doing before. I think many local builders (those who did not cash out at the top) will go bust as they are left with spec homes they can't sell. I think a significant amount of office space that is currently occupied by realtors, builders and mortgage companies will be vacant in the next 12 months.

I think this town will feel a mild to deep recession in 2008. A lot of this town still depends on the price of Kern River Crude and the price of agricultural commodites. If they stay strong we will only see a mild recession here locally.

Where will prices go from here ask a local realtor and you can bet what the answer will be. Ask thounds of bloggers from around the country and you will get too different answers. Who will be right? So far we are.

Anonymous said...

"Do you guys actually think that prices in Bakersfield are going to fall to pre bubble-2001 prices?!"

If they don't fall at least to 2003 prices, our children will be life time renters. I am a home owner. I guess i'll just "will" my house to my kid.

Perfect Storm said...

The real estate dominos are falling very fast.

Anonymous said...

This house is listed for rent at $4900/month. who the hell would rent a house for $4900??

http://bakersfield.craigslist.org/apa/287403808.html

Anonymous said...

"Do you guys actually think that prices in Bakersfield are going to fall to pre bubble-2001 prices?! "

yes...some will. those owner that can hold out will just not sell, but the reo's will be had in the 2001 range. what a person can afford w/ downpayment will become the norm again.

my house was built in 91, bought peak, sold for a loss 92, bought for 30% less 92, sold 98 10% gain, sold to me in 2001 for 10% gain, I sold in 06 for 120% gain. (Ridiculus I couldn't buy it at that price.)

My old house may not sell for 2001, but I bet one in the tract does at REO within a couple of years. They are already down 13% just on LIST price less than a year after peak in the tract.

Corona, Ca. Not the worst city, but not the best. Still a lot closer to jobs than bakersfield.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, 220% gain 01 to 06.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"This house is listed for rent at $4900/month. who the hell would rent a house for $4900??"


Thanks. I missed that.

$4,900 per month. Good luck with that. LMFAO. Are these people for real?

Perfect Storm said...

So their trying to rent out the giant stucco box and sell it? It sounds like we got a fish frying here that may get a little burnt.

Are there any equity loans out on the house?

Bay Area Foodies said...

"Do you guys actually think that prices in Bakersfield are going to
fall to pre bubble-2001 prices?"


No one knows. But here is how it would have to happen:

1) The world has way more money floating around then historically. Don't take my word for it, look around: housing, stocks, goverment spending, gold, copper, corn, oil, etc. But there is very low inflation? That cannot be "right" forever. So we will see money supply shrink or we will see inflation.

2) Housing is going now because the money supply is shrinking. Less investors decrease demand, tighter lending decreases demand. But I think most people who find it hard to believe that this is enough to take housing prices down to "fundamental" levels are right. It takes more.

4) Time: It took about 8 years for this bubble to get where it is, it may take 8 years to bring it back down. We all know the effect that 10 years of housing apriciation had on people, but can you imagine what 10 years of housing deprication/stagnation can have on people? I can and if you are old enough maybe you don't need to imagine (or are Japanese)
5) Inflation and interest rates. Do you remember a time when both were higher? Lets say that inflation was not 2.5% and interest rates were not 5.25% Imagine they were 4% and 8%. Or they could be even higher...
6) Running the numbers for a1M house today at 6%. If rates go up 2 points to get the same monthly payments you would have to price the house at around 800k. Now lets say that the market has to much inventory and it take 5 years to get rid of that, keeping housing prices flat, inflation adjusted price is reduced to about 620K in todays dollars. So without any overpricing, the house "price" drops 40% over 5 years. Adjusting for inflation, the suggested 350K price in 1997 would be around 500k in todays dollars. We are getting closer!!!


7) What about other factors: We have a great economy, housing is at historic levels, loans are easy to get. What if some of that goes away? If it does than that could bring the price of that was 1M dollar house down another 10% maybe right?

In total we are talking about something like an inflation adjusted drop of 50% in the next 5-8 years. I am not saying it will happen. But I think people on these blogs, including me, think the train has left the station and its not easy to turn and pretty much impossible to stop. We are all on board so hold tight.

anyways, back to work....

(Note: calculations done on napkin and could be wrong/imprecise. Have not included variables such as: taxes, rebates, asset depreciation, unemployment rates, population growth, globalization, yen carry trade, global warming, global cooling, llama trade, etc.....)

Mozo Maz said...

Since most bubble bloggers agree we have not seen the end of price declines, let's assume this house bottoms at $800K as a transaction price.

If wage "growth" keeps pace with inflation and we have 5% inflation for 7 years, putting this house on the market for $800K in the year 2014 is like selling it now for $571K. And that seems relatively credible.

So, I could see a combination of another year of price drops, followed by stangnant prices and nominal inflation, gradually working our way out of the bubble.

The problem is that it will be a heavy psychological load on many people, to be stuck with hoomes that they cannot sell, for years. It will affect consumer spending, and it will affect sentiment.

People that remember CA from 1991-1994 will tell you it was a gloomy period. The state was mired in recession longer than most of the US, the state was paying its employees with IOUs. Plus there was the Northridge earthquake, the OC bankruptcy, the LA riots.

AnalysisGuy said...

"Do you guys actually think that prices in Bakersfield are going to fall to pre bubble-2001 prices?"

Depends upon what measurement you use. Do I think inflation-adjusted prices will fall to pre-2001 square foot prices? YES!

Do I think that nominal prices will return to pre-2001 prices? NO - But who cares.

I have no doubt prices will fall and that they will fall substainally in real terms. My only question is how long this will take to play out (7 - 15 years) and how this (and other coastal bubbles) in turn will affect the US and world economies.

thebubblebuster.com

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Yoo's have a neg on this one and owe 640K on the 1st and 80K on the 2nd.
If they were smart, they'd sell this sucker for $750k and just get out. The place is only 3000sqft, it's not huge and it's in Bakerfield. By bet is by Jan '09, you could pick something like this up for 550k-650k.
Real estate went up for 6 years ('99-'05) will take about 3 years for it to hit bottom.

Anonymous said...

Crispy - are you the same person that just overpaid for this house:

11 .1Mi. 10509 NEWQUAY CT 03/31/2006 $1,705,000 $255 6,666 /4/4.25
1998 30,492 SF
Yes
BAKERSFIELD, CA 93311-2958

APN: 393-132-08 Document #: 0206079608 Document Type:Grant Deed Price Code: F

Land Use: Single Family Residential

Legal: Lot:19 Tract No:5292 MapRef:MB42 PG36-38 City/Muni/Twp:BAKERSFIELD

Buyer Name: CRISP, DAVID M

Seller Name: PARK, ARTHUR M AND PARK, GINSOOK
Loan Amount: $1,105,000 Lender Name:SUNTRUST MORTGAGE INC

It's right down the street from our subject

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Yoo's have a neg on this one and owe 640K on the 1st and 80K on the 2nd.
If they were smart, they'd sell this sucker for $750k and just get out.


You clearly don't understand capitalism and real estate: the price can only go UP! ;)

This whole sub-prime collapse and rampant unregulated speculation by out-of-towners (that fed rapid home price appreciation) reminds me of the kid with the fat hand who sticks it up the candy machine and manages to grasp a hold of the candy: he's too greedy to let it go....

Bakersfield Bubble said...

LMFAO!

I have no affiliation with those clowns. I think they are a great example of this idiotic mania - that why I picked the name Crispy.

BTW - that home was one of the first features on this blog titled "Flip or Flop"

Bakersfield Bubble said...

*that's

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Here is that property on New Quay and my post on it.

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/2006/08/flip-or-flop.html

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Here is an update on that property - titled "Multi-Million Dollar Flip or Flop: Update"


http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/2006/12/multi-million-dollar-flip-or-flop.html

Anonymous said...

some sort of shell game, note whos buy and selling....


Subject Property Location
10509 NEWQUAY CT, BAKERSFIELD, CA 93311-2958
County: KERN CA Census Tract: 0028.11
Property Use: Single Family Residential Zoning:
Parcel Number: 393-132-08 Thomas Bros Pg-Grid: 2481-4C

Current Owner:
Owner Name: CRISP, DAVID M Recording Date: 01/23/2007
Care Of Name:
Mailing Address:10509 NEWQUAY CT, BAKERSFIELD, CA 93311-2958


County Tax & Assessment:
Assessment Year: 2006 Market Value Year: Tax Rate Code Area: 1-091
Assd Land Value: $165,395 Market Land Value: Tax Year: 2005
Assd Improvement: $966,131 Market Improvment Value: Total Tax Amount: $12,939
Total Assessed Value: $1,131,526 Total Assessor Market Value: Delinquent Year:
Assessee Name: PARK ARTHUR M & GINSOOK Tax Account ID:
Mailing Address: 5555 CALIFORNIA AVE STE 301 Homeowner's Exemption: H
BAKERSFIELD, CA 93309-1643 Tax Exemptions:

Assessment Legal Description
Block: 19 Tract No: 5292
Abbreviated Description: MAP 5292 , BLOCK , LOT 19

Property Characteristics:
Lot Size: 30,492 SF Bedrooms: 4 Pool: Yes
Building Area: 6,666 SF Baths: 4.25 Fireplace: 2
Year Built: 1998 Partial Baths: Type Const: Wood
Number of Buildings: Number of Rooms: Ext Walls:
Number of Units: Garage Type: Yes Heating:
Number of Stories: 2 Number of Cars: 4 A/C: Central
Style: Basement: Roof Cover:
Foundation: Elevator:

Subject Property Deed/Transfer History:

Mortgage Record
Recording Date: 01/23/2007 Loan Amount: $250,000
Document #: 0207016046 BK-PG - Loan Type: Stand Alone Second
TD Due Date: 02/01/2037 Type Finance:
Interest Rate:
Borrower Name:CRISP,DAVID M
Vesting Type:Married Man as his sole and separate property
Lender Name:X BANCORP
Lender Type:Other (company or corporation)
Legal Description:
Lot: 19 Tract No: 5292
City/Muni/Twp: BAKERSFIELD


Prior Transfer
Recording Date: 01/23/2007 Sales Price: N/A
Document #: 0207016044 BK-PG - Type of Sale:
Document Type: Intrafamily Transfer & Dissolution
Multi APN Flag:
Buyer Names: CRISP, DAVID M Buyer Vesting Married Man as his sole and separate property
Care of Name:
Mailing Address:10509 NEWQUAY CT, BAKERSFIELD, CA 93311-2958
Seller Name:CRISP, JENNIFER
Mortgage Doc #: 0207016045 Loan Amount: $1,750,000
Lender Name: X BANCORP Interest Rate: 8.5%
Loan Type: Stand Alone Refi 2nd Loan Amt: N/A
Type Financing: FIX
Legal Description:
Lot: 19 Tract No: 5292 Map Ref: MB42 PG36-38
City/Muni/Twp: BAKERSFIELD


Mortgage Record
Recording Date: 03/31/2006 Loan Amount: $350,000
Document #: 0206079611 BK-PG - Loan Type: Stand Alone Second
TD Due Date: 04/01/2036 Type Finance:
Interest Rate:
Borrower Name:CRISP,DAVID M
Vesting Type:Married Man as his sole and separate property
Lender Name:SUNTRUST MORTGAGE INC
Lender Type:Mortgage company
Legal Description:
Lot: 19 Tract No: 5292
City/Muni/Twp: BAKERSFIELD


Prior Transfer
Recording Date: 03/31/2006 Sales Price: N/A
Document #: 0206079609 BK-PG - Type of Sale:
Document Type: Intrafamily Transfer & Dissolution
Multi APN Flag:
Buyer Names: CRISP, DAVID M Buyer Vesting Married Man as his sole and separate property
Care of Name:CRISP & COLE REALTY
Mailing Address:5555 CALIFORNIA AVESTE 301 , BAKERSFIELD, CA 93309-1643
Seller Name:CRISP, JENNIFER
Mortgage Doc #: Loan Amount: N/A
Lender Name: Interest Rate:
Loan Type: 2nd Loan Amt: N/A
Type Financing:
Legal Description:
Lot: 19 Tract No: 5292 Map Ref: MB42 PG36-38
City/Muni/Twp: BAKERSFIELD


Prior Transfer
Recording Date: 03/31/2006 Sales Price: $1,705,000
Document #: 0206079608 BK-PG - Type of Sale: Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Document Type: Grant Deed
Multi APN Flag:
Buyer Names: CRISP, DAVID M Buyer Vesting Married Man as his sole and separate property
Care of Name:CRISP & COLE REALTY
Mailing Address:5555 CALIFORNIA AVESTE 301 , BAKERSFIELD, CA 93309-1643
Seller Name:PARK, ARTHUR M; PARK, GINSOOK
Mortgage Doc #: 0206079610 Loan Amount: $1,105,000
Lender Name: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE INC Interest Rate:
Loan Type: Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac 2nd Loan Amt: N/A
Type Financing:
Legal Description:
Lot: 19 Tract No: 5292 Map Ref: MB42 PG36-38
City/Muni/Twp: BAKERSFIELD


Prior Transfer
Recording Date: 09/15/2000 Sales Price: N/A
Document #: 0200115298 BK-PG - Type of Sale:
Document Type: Grant Deed
Multi APN Flag:
Buyer Names: PARK, ARTHUR M; PARK, GINSOOK Buyer Vesting Joint Tenancy
Care of Name:
Mailing Address:10509 NEWQUAY CT, BAKERSFIELD, CA 93311-2958
Seller Name:, CASTLE & COOKE CALIFORNIA INC
Mortgage Doc #: 0200115299 Loan Amount: $252,000
Lender Name: NORTH AMERICAN MTG Interest Rate:
Loan Type: 2nd Loan Amt: $400,000
Type Financing:
Legal Description:

Abbreviated Description: MAP 5292 , BLOCK , LOT 19
City/Muni/Twp: BAKERSFIELD

Anonymous said...

these crispy dorks are buying and selling to each other and then pulling all kinds of 'equity' out....wonder when it will catch up the them???

now I know how he affords the McLaren SLR, Ferraris, Benzs and uber cool Rovers with guards...I can't wait to see this market crash and find the realtwhores/brokers/lenders in jail!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I have been watching them do this for a while now. Look up most of their properties and it is a bunch of buy and sell to each other. Then refinance and sell and transfer to each other again.

I am not sure what they hell they are trying to do, oh wait yes I am, LOL...

BTW - there are several other realtors/mtg brokers doing the same thing...