Wednesday, November 08, 2006

"Housing price collapse in two years"

From the Central Valley Business Times:

Newsletter: Housing bubble hasn’t even gotten here

• Predicts housing price collapse in two years
• ‘Homeowners are in denial’

The author of an investment newsletter says any real bursting of the U.S. housing bubble it at least two years away and that the current price and selling setbacks are nothing compared to what is likely to happen.

"Homeowners are in denial," says Karim Rahemtulla, an advisory panelist for Investment U, a newsletter based in Baltimore, Md. "Right now, sellers aren't selling ... They're still waiting for Santa to deliver their asking price, or close to it."

The situation is about to get worse, he says.

Those who have interest-only, or "teaser-rate," mortgages could see their monthly payments more than double, Mr. Rahemtulla contends.

"Interest rates will rise on about $300 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages this year alone," he says. "That figure is projected to skyrocket to more than $1 trillion in each of the next two years."

California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida will be hit particularly hard, he says, and homeowners in these states may not see a 5 percent decline, as experts predict, "but could fall two or three times that number."

Homebuilders are feeling the pinch, too.

According to Mr. Rahemtulla, the bottom of the housing market will be here no sooner than two years.

"So while the brokers are upgrading homebuilding stocks," he says, "and trying to make it seem that the worst is over for housing, my advice is to take the first reasonable offer and count yourself lucky. The housing bust is not today's news. It is going to be tomorrow's."

Mr. Rahemtulla is an equal opportunity bubble-popper. He says the Canadian housing market will see its bubble pop, too, just after the U.S. market.



Anonymous said...

Good post Crispy. Especially like the "equal opportunity bubble popper" line. LOL (TM)

P'cola Popper

smoggiebakersfield said...

I thought prices have already fallen 5% by FAR. I've seen actual sales price declines of 12% to 25% in the past two months. I have no idea where the predicted 15% decline comes from???????

Yes, sellers are in denial, but the Re Agents that are listing these homes are coaching their clients into listing, at inflated prices and the homes are staying on the market. So, the RE agents are in denial too.

The plain and simply truth is, real price declines are going to get alot worse.

Merced Going Quicklyq said...

"advice is to take the first reasonable offer and count yourself lucky. The housing bust is not today's news. It is going to be tomorrow's."

In Modesto, prices down %5.71 YOY is news today.

Merced Going Quickly said...

I coudn't believe it!

Latino group calls immigrants an untapped home buyers market: The slumping housing market could get a $200 billion boost from new immigrant home buyers if mainstream lenders start using alternative methods to score credit
....lack Social Security numbers or legal status in the U.S.
...Should the new reporting methods gain wider acceptance
...No law requires that buyers be in the country legally to buy real estate
...enerates a credit score using nontraditional data


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Anonymous said...

The best part about the bursting R.E. bubble is that the pathetic and annoying leveraged yuppies are starting to have to sell their Harley Davidsons. Who ever told them that cutting off the mufflers made them look cool or tough? They look like AARP dorks that make too much noise. Good riddance.