Friday, October 24, 2008

September numbers out - Prices down 46% from the peak

DQ Numbers for September:

Bakersfield Median - $176,500

Down 28.8% YOY and Down 46% from the peak...knife catchers beware, as the economy continues to crater prices will continue to fall. Buyer beware!

The good news, a lot of other areas are crumbling faster than we are.

What were the predictions by the local real estate community for 2008:

I don't think it's as lousy as everyone puts on," said Ray Karpe, the immediate past president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors, a local trade group....

And, he predicted, home prices will reverse direction, and start an incremental climb. "I think home prices, home values, will creep up," Karpe said.


“By mid-2008 the housing industry will show signs of growth,” says Mr. Nevin. “Continued population growth, a reduction of existing inventory and a return to normalcy in the credit markets are a recipe for a more positive 2008. As a result, we are projecting a slight increase in new home sales over last year.”


Realestateslasher said...

How low can we Go! 75%

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I have a feeling my bottom call of a median of $160k will be very wrong if the price of oil keeps falling. If oil gets back to late 90's level, look out below

Rob Dawg said...

How is the tax assessor handling the requests?

Perfect Storm said...

It looks like Bako needs a good old "were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009."

Bakersfield has been and probably always will be a oil boom and bust town, with oil below $70 a barrel a lot of those wildcat drillers won't be able to make it.

Anonymous said...

I believe we're only down 42%. The official DQNews high was $308,000 in September 2006.

It's still however quite an impressive drop. Even more impressive is that median CA home prices are now down more than $200k either way you count.
DQNews has them down $201k in just 16 months ($484,000 to $283,000) and CAR has them down $$281k) in just 17 months ($597,640 to $316,480).

As bad as it is here however, it will likely get worse. Remember these Sep #s are actually sales from July and August. Can you imagine the Oct #s!

Lastly, check out Monterey County CAR stats which now leads CA in price decline. They are now down $520k in just 13 months ($799,500 to $280,000)! OUCH - That's 65%!

So I guess 75% isn't out of the question...


Anonymous said...

I'm now watching for a "dead cat bounce" on prices.
I understand the City hasn't even issued 1,000 new home permits in calendar 2008 compared to the nearly 6,000 in 2005.

Anonymous said...

Need to watch median income to get a good idea of what the median home price should be here in Bakersfield. Something like 120,000 to 130,000 is about what I'm guessing.

Adam Smith said...

LOL, thanks for keeping track of their "predictions" and going back to double-check the veracity of their "predictions".

Turns out that most of these "predictions" aren't actually educated opinions, just hoping beyond all hope!

I agree: if the price of oil falls off (due to demand destruction), then Bakes is as toasted as Crispy!

Adam Smith said...

I'm now watching for a "dead cat bounce" on prices.

Uh. you must be joking. This ain't the stock market, where buyers can see an oversold indicator and buy on the spot so that the price bounces! Real estate is not THAT liquid.

Besides, we're in the middle of a historic credit crunch: the problem during the past few years was you had plenty of UNQUALIFIED buyers in the market, and even if the banks ARE lending to only the most-qualified buyers, there's too much competition amongst sellers that precludes driving prices higher.

So keep watching for that 'dead cat bounce', but don't tire yourself out waiting: it'll take YEARS before we see a leveling off of prices, much less a significant rebound.

Anonymous said...

How is the tax assessor handling the requests?

Very carefully. :)

It's funny, but it seems like only (2) years ago when we were all pondering how long it would take for prices to hit 50% off. I NEVER believed we'd see it drop this much this fast, as real estate is notoriously inelastic. But apparently it wasn't so inelastic that prices could skyrocket, so it's good to remember that what can go up irrationally and quickly also can come down, even quicker!

Look at a chart of the stock market, and it looks more like someone drove off a cliff, going straight down. Much like the recent plummeting in commodities, stocks, and oil prices, real estate was also heavily leveraged by specuvestors: we're seeing a widespread phenomenon of massive deleveraging across the board, be it real estate, or other "things", so perhaps no surprise people are liquidating.

Anonymous said...

I plan to buy a home for ~200K around february - do you think i should wait more - if so how much?

Ichabod said...

Prices Per Square Foot on some of the Newest Listings:

$183.30 (Seven Oaks Grand Island, 2006)
$141.06 (NW, half an acre, 2002)
$111.43 (NW, 2005)
$121.67 (NW, 2005)
$85.60 (NW, 2005)

nddl04 said...

If Republicans want to win this election, I have one simple solution.

Promise the American people that no taxpayer money will go to gifts for deliquent homeowners. Look at the CNN poll on this issue, the American people feel very strongly about this subject.

So far, McCain has nothing to distinguish himself as anything other than Obama "lite and white"

nddl04 said...

And on the same note, get Obama to sing the same tune. Force him to face the issue himself. If he spends the next few days promising bailouts, that could swing the polls. Biden has mentioned that Obama will be forced to do some things that will basically piss of the American people. I'm guessing that this is one of those things. It's an issue that I'm surprised hasn't come up more often than it has.

Anonymous said...

Just go to look at price per sq feet when that levels off of a long period is the time to buy.