Friday, October 03, 2008
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2008
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October
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- Freedom fails!
- Stop paying your mortgage?
- September numbers out - Prices down 46% from the peak
- Real estate "mogul" defaults grow
- What will the bankers do with the money and Suncal...
- Local shopping center about to become a ghost town
- Bailout money to be used to pay Wall Street Bonuses
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October
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30 comments:
too funny
Okay Big Cry Baby Boys....Month of September notices of default and trustee deeds are down....your bubble is about to burst this month. No doom and gloom this halloween...AND, maybe, just maybe, there might be some thanksgiving next month.
anon - Do you know what happened in California real estate law in September?
Obviously you don't...do some research and then come back and tell me...You must have lost a home to f/c or maybe you lost your ass in the stock market.
LOL - great cartoon. How ironic - just this past weekend, I was trying to freak out some neighbor kids by telling them the house on the corner was haunted. They asked how it was haunted and I told them that each morning when I wake up and look at it, more pieces are missing. Somehow, just days after the bank took it over, mysteriously, things keep dissapearing - first the sad little tree in the front got uprooted, next, the blinds in the front window and the motor for the garage door opener. Oooohhhhhhhh - spooky.
If those people come back again to strip their lost house, I am tempted to call the cops on them. Oh well, at least the criminal element that lived there is gone now. Now I can return the security camera system I bought.
anon 12:03
"there might be some thanksgiving next month."
Wishful thinking, theres not going to be much -giving anytime soon.
Smoggiebakersfield
Is that one on the end the stub of Crisp Towers?
I can hear little Crisp jr right now leading the troops. My daddy screwed us out of our candy too, dammit.
Smoggiebakersfield
Check out this pulled SNL skit..funny as hell!
http://patdollard.com/2008/10/it-is-here-the-banned-snl-skit-cannot-hide-from-louie/
Smoggiebakersfield
That is a funny cartoon! So true!
Anyone else go to the Hudson & Marshall auction at the Double Tree last night? (10/7)
Looked like things went cheap for the most part. But, all the deals are subject to lender approval so who knows how many will be accepted vs countered.
I was there to bid on a house on Beaver Creek 93312. It "sold" for $240k- plus premium $252k. I guess not a bad deal for almost 2700 sq ft w/ pool in a nice area. It did need work though. I stopped at $230k, this market is going deeper and longer than expected. I can wait. Unless the gov't steps in a re-writes all these people's loans and writes off the old balance there won't be an end to this anytime soon.
Agree?
Bbubble.....the Notices of Default and Trustee's Deeds do not have anything to do with the September real estate law.....common on now, you are slipping. The decline in the NOD and TD are a result of happening prior to the "September" events........now seems, to be a decent time to buy....it is a guess, and no, I have not lost my A** nor do I have a home in foreclosure....I have been in the industry for a very long time. I want to see recovery, and I agree with alot of your posts, but sometimes you get on a roll of yourself....
Anon- how can you see recovery now? Do you not know the number of liar loans that were taken out in 2006? 2009 is their year to shine :)
Also, do you watch the news? What about the nations/world economy makes you think there is a recovery?
Kern housing is so far outpaced their income it much come down. When real loans prevail, people dn't have the down payment to allow high dollar homes vs their income.
People don't make a lot here! $100 a foot for nice home is very reasonable for this area. (not for a custom but not for a 14 year old KB Home in a ghetto area either)
We aren't there yet. The economy is not there yet. Unless someone steps in (gov't) and bails people out this will be at bottom in a year or so. Who knows how long it will take to get going again but I don't see Kern moving faster than other areas of CA. (slower if anything)
Just my thoughts. Also, when we see 3 months of reduced NOD's I will take notice, 6 months and I will sing a different tune, but 1 month means nothing.
Bak..
I mentioned that I want to see a recovery, like everyone else. I see signs of a pick up. I see more buyers in the lower end. With a minimal down, they are purchasing homes and paying the same for the house payment as they did the rent. Normally, the rest of the market follows. This is a sign of something, and I don't think it should be ignored and worth of comment. The time to buy is when it is affordable for you....and if you can make the stroke of the payment. Who knows where this market is headed. It is a decent to buy when your house payment is the same as your rent, with minimal investment. I beleive that the NOD and TD will level off, I beleive we hit the high. Hopefully!
Kern has never been like the rest of the nation......we are most the time just the opposite
Anon... actually, the change in real estate law has everything to do with the decline, observe.
Essentially, CA put a 1 mo. delay in NOD's by adding extra notification requirements. This caused an anamoly, but has nothing to do with an actual change in trends. The loans that would have defaulted last month will get lumped into the next few months. Nice Kool-aid though, the sarcasm flavored kind is always the best.
For the quick summary:
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/09/19/ca-foreclosure-notices-fall-90-problem-solved-no-way/
The whole shabang
http://www.unitedtrustees.com/enews/articles/phillip_adleson_article_0908.html
I don't think we've hit the high on NOD/foreclosures....I guessing that those folks that paid twice the going rate for their home will eventually walk, even if they can swing the paymnent. To be honest they'ld be idiots if they didn't walk. Personal responsibility only goes so far, no one seems to have it these days and I wouldn't want to be the fool who stays in...
let's also not forget that oil is now in the high 80s....what happens to the local economy when it hits 60....say adios to even a 150k median
as far as the feds go, they can do all they want, it won't help, if anything it will do more harm.
ol McCain actually said last night that he would buy and adjust PRINCIPLES of all those bad loans....if that actually does happen then the RE market will do nothing but fall faster and farther
LOL, I just noticed, for the observant, the KC assessor's office added a special note to the September data point.
http://assessor.co.kern.ca.us/PDFs/current/rcrd-stats-nts_default.pdf
nddl04 said...
Anon... actually, the change in real estate law has everything to do with the decline, observe.
_________________________
Yeah, some people are hopeful things don't get worse...hey, I don't like seeing our country go down the shitter either. It really pisses me off, but I have been pissed since 2004 when this mess started.
Hope is not going to make things better...only time will make things better.
nddl04 said... - yes, the pdf from the COunty tells the truth...our local realtor friend is trying to spin things his way.
anon (realtor) - Bbubble.....the Notices of Default and Trustee's Deeds do not have anything to do with the September real estate law.....common on now, you are slipping. The decline in the NOD and TD are a result of happening prior to the "September" events
________________________________
Unfortunately, you have now lost all credibility as the readers can now see (by going to the County pdf) that what you said was not true.
This hurts your profession, thousands of locals come here to see information on the real estate market and you do more harm to your profession than good, its ok to cheerlead, but don't lie, it just makes all of us more skeptical of your profession.
What is going to happen when the Notice of Defaults never get to Trustee SALE before the Bank go's Belly up
gess we won't have them Recorded
how meny banks and Mortgage compenys have Defaulted. Trustees lost in the paper work on someones desk that no longer has a Job to process the notice of defaults
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM
Bbubble, please acknowledge............this is not rocket science....YOU do your homework....do you understand the timelines for a foreclosure?
Q1. - When does this bill take effect and become law?
A1. - SB 1137 passed the California Senate and Assembly as urgency legislation to take effect
upon execution by Governor Schwarzenegger. The Governor signed the bill on July 8,
2008 and the statute took effect immediately. However, the new requirements in Section
2 for Notices of Default and Notice of Sale and Section 4 for Notices of Sale become
operative 60 days after the effective date, or September 8, 2008.
Q2. - If I already have a Notice of Default recorded, do I have to start over?
A2. - No. You can proceed as before the enactment of SB 1137 as long as your Notice of Sale
is not posted and published after September 8, 2008. Beware of documents prepared in
advance.
Ok... someone help me out here. Did anon just prove our point? I'm not sure how your post helps your argument in any way. Your choice in strategy is interesting (lead with insulting sarcasm "oh g's, I thought you guys were smart" and end with evidence that contradicts your argument). It certainly makes the counter argument difficult.
I guess I'll start off my argument by quoting you... "Section 4 for Notices of Sale become operative 60 days after the effective date, or September 8, 2008."
So... you are right, it wasn't in effect in July or August, reflected in the continually large trend in NOD's.
If you look at the daily trends (availble at one of the linked articles and on many other resources) you can see that in advance of the September deadline, bank workers accelerated the paper process and we saw a surge in NOD's in the days leading up to the 8th. Once the new rules came into effect, there was almost an immediate near halt in NOD's issued. This is a result of Bank workers shifting their focus to redoing the "documents prepared in advance." The result is what we see here in front of us. Considering that there is nothing in this particular piece of legislation that should actually stop the foreclosure process, there is no reason to assume that this anomaly represents a change in overall trend. The financial market certainly agrees, despite the $800 billion dollar gift, courtesy of the young taxpayers who get to service that debt (like me).
Side thought... perhaps the $800 billion wasn't enough to cover the basic necessities, like AIG's recent half million dollar executive spa day.
For a link the the referenced chart... statistically speaking, there is a significant change to the process. Intepreting this change requires some fundamental analysis. It's up to your own interpretation to believe whether or not it is mere coincidence that it correlates exactly with the date that the law went into effect (and that the county and numerous pundits were also wrong in informing you that yes, this was the cause).
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/sb-1137-for-mr-mtg-blog.bmp
Pleazzzzzzze! Blah, Blah, Blah.....you still don't understand the time frames....I am not trying to shine a light on anything, just commenting on facts. I don't know what is going to happen, if you are right or I am right (which I truly beleive I am) ........let's look at the entire picture as it unfolds.....I think comments should be made looking with things with both eyes, not just one....when there is a change, we need to pay attention, be it positively or negitively effecting our market.
Ok, one last time... I'm getting the feeling you're just posting for the sake of getting a rise out of the folks on this blog. I am going to refer to the time frames, as I have in my last several messages.
The law went into effect on the September 8th of 2008 the year of our Lord (in case there is any confusion).
The daily trends for CA NOD's are as follows (according to the data you haven't looked at)
9/3: 3,447
9/4: 3,271
9/5: 6,239 (day before law change, banks rush to push paperwork)
9/8: 422
9/9: 331
And so on. The reasons given from the government offices processing the NOD paperwork were that banks had slowed to redo the paperwork in process in addition to a large number of rejected NOD's due to lack of understanding of the new rules. I'm gonna run on the assumption that these mortgages didn't disappear.
I can't make it any clearer. I agree with you that there is a change. Such a significant cause must have a pretty clear reason. I specifically highlighted the timeline of the change, and the direct correlation of the change to the timeline of the new legislation. Having established correlation, I used basic levels of fundamental analysis, relying on reports from the government and nearly every other industry expert. The combination of all these factors leads me to believe that not only is there a correlation between the legislation and the drop in NOD’s, but that they are, in fact, causally related.
If you are so convinced that there is another reason for this sudden drop then by all means, instead of sitting around throwing around strawmen, explain… the onus is in your court.
The progress we're seeing (sorry if I have said it before) is that many REOs are now selling very quickly and at higher than list price right now. A REO in Seven Oaks Grand Island, on Bickerstaff, went on the market last week. PRISTINE CONDITION. 2571 square feet- wood flooring, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, pool, gated Seven Oaks. List price? $272,000. I have heard it is pending somewhere in the high $300s. The banks are changing their strategy- price low and see the multiple offers come in. I think this house had over 20 in the first 2 days.
Write it down: we have not even begun to see the high number of REOs. NOT-EVEN-BEGUN. We aren't eighth in the nation for nothing folks... A whole new wave is coming in early 2009.
Well he seems to be getting a for sure rise out of YOU!!!! Why don't you stop answering!!!
It does't matter anyway the hole idea is what ever happens in todays market keep your head up remember when the going gets tough the Tough get tougher and in this market that is presnt it does't get any tougher so lets get busy
Payments are lower than RENT
That cartoon had me spitting out my gatorade. Great find. - Nick, www.truxtunavenue.com
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