Saturday, June 16, 2007

Home prices down 7% YOY

New and existing home numbers for May 2007 are out from Dataquick news.

Median home price this year (May 2007) is $265,000 vs $285,000 last year (May 2006).

Home sales were down 39% YOY.

More details will be posted when the CAR reports by city in a week.

9 comments:

John M said...

Hi Crispy,

This MSM piece had a Bakersfield focus.

"Mortgage Mess: Foreclosures On The Rise", by Diana Olick, CNBC, June 15, 2007.

rrastronomo said...

saw a matthews home 3000 sq ft advertised in the paper for 297K, around 100 per sq ft. Are homes reverting back to their mean price points. There are some evidence it is.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Thanks john!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

rrastronomo-

I am also seeing some homes at 2003 prices, not many, but some.

99% of the stuff listed is still over priced, but there have been a few sellers who have capitulated, only the distressed sellers so far - see REO lists.

ukhousingbubble said...

I wish we had those kind of numbers here in the UK. Despite a series of interest rate increase, house prices keep on going up.

Adam said...

Sure, we're starting to see prices move down (as expected), but remember we're only at the beginning stages of the correction.

The sub-prime debacle (and associated credit restrictions afterwards) is only starting to come to mainstream awareness now, and the fact that interest rates are starting to move higher is going to only make matters worse.

Based on past patterns (although this current price run-up is unprecedented in both magnitude and sheer longitivity) I'm guessing it will take about 2-4 years to approach reasonable valuations, for the most part.

Here's an interesting video from Michael Zigaris, President/CEO of PMZ Real Estate, on what he's expecting for Modesto, and the Central Valley overall:

http://www.pmzbuzz.com

The overly-zealous economists who predicted a quick and easy recovery (trying to play the Greenspan card, perhaps hoping the "say it enough times, and it may come true" strategy might work?) have mostly given up, and are seeking shelter from the coming tempest.

FWIW, here's a great chart offered by National City, a research firm that provides reports to bankers, etc.

http://tinyurl.com/yr23wb

Scroll your mouse over Bakersfield, and you can see their calculations show it to be 51% over-valued compared to trend line. We can see the peak of the bubble, about 4 cycles prior to now. Kind of cool way to track the correction...

AnalysisGuy said...

National City offers some of the best research around. I discovered there site about 6 months ago and their tremendous work has been a large reason for the lack of updates on my site (thebubblebuster.com).

I highly encourage all readers of this blog to and read their (National City Housing Analysis work.

Realestateslasher said...

With all the bank foreclosures
in Bakersfield, 100 per sq ft
looks like harvest time is near.
When the going gets tough (and blood on the streets) The Tough
Get Tougher.
Sell Sell Sell

Adam said...

their tremendous work has been a large reason for the lack of updates on my site (thebubblebuster.com).

Well, your site is certainly nothing to sneeze at! What I appreciate is your charts show a longer time period than the National City charts, so I'd strongly encourage you to keep up the good work!

FWIW, I'm also impressed with Sacramento Area Flippers in Trouble:

http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/

I guess they're tapping into MLS to present data for current listings (as well as showing what houses were sold for years before, etc).

You all serve a distinct purpose, by filling in the gaps that "they" don't want the public to see, so thanks!