Thursday, January 04, 2007

Central Valley seen as stable

Central Valley Business Times has a very rosy forecast from CBIA. I will review at year end to see how close they were:

California’s housing production in 2007 is expected to continue “taking a breather” from the pace set in 2005 and 2004, the California Building Industry Association says.

The new home market will slowly return to what the CBIA says are historically normal levels.

CBIA Chief Economist Alan Nevin forecasts that housing starts for single-family homes, condominiums, and apartments should total between 155,000 and 170,000 this year, about the same or slightly lower than in 2006.

He says it will be a “perfectly tolerable year” for builders.

That’s well short of the 220,000 new housing units the state says are needed to meet population growth, according to the CBIA.

“I see a nice stable market, certainly not anything like the craziness of 2005,” Mr. Nevin says of the Central Valley north of Bakersfield.

“But the market is growing. I look at places like Modesto and Merced and I see a stable growth there because the employment base is growing,” he says. “So you’ll see a nice steady type of market in the northern Central Valley.”


Anonymous said...

Hey Crispy-

You need to start a separate blog to chart these brokerage failures. This feels just like the Dot Com shakeout when companies were failing on a daily basis.

Bakersfield Bubble said...


Someone beat me to it - See Ocfliptrack blog.

I am surprised at how many of these companies went from rumor to outright failure in only a month or so. Thats 5 sub primes down and everyone of them was rumored, then denied, and then gone. Some of these were mulit-billion dollar companies.

Anonymous said...

You can bet that the rest are burning late night conference calls attempting to align strategically. You see for the past year all the sub-primes have been losing money on their deals but holding share. So, now that consolidation becomes necessary it turns out that all the potential betrothed are the bottom partner.

Anonymous said...

That’s well short of the 220,000 new housing units the state says are needed to meet population growth, according to the CBIA.

Alan Netwit always says the same bunch of bull crap and that is there are not enough homes for sell to meet population growth.

Well Alan why do we have the largest amount of inventory ever?

Anonymous said...

Central Valley is stable? I was born and raised in Fresno. Stability for Fresno is urban blight, moving in a sweeping band from south to north. That's historical. But somehow the San Joaquin River bluffs are very valuable for real estate. So this urban blight movement is slowing to a stop. That's good for Fresno. But prices there are probably double, compared to what they should be. I have a fondness toward the Valley like New Jerseyan's have a fondness for New Jersey. In general, people from the Valley are real.