Friday, August 25, 2006


Current inventory per the Bakersfield MLS is 4,122. A year ago the inventory was 942. Sales are down 35% YOY. If you ask a local realtor or other real estate expert all you will hear is "soft landing", "back to a more normal market", "we are the most affordable place to live in Ca", and on and on.

For these sales people its also always a great time to buy - "interest rates are going up, you better buy before they do", "interest rates are down, its a great time to buy". Is there ever not a great time to buy? Listen to the local show on 1410 on Saturday at 10:00 am and by 10:07 they have said at least 5 times that its a great time to buy.

What these local sales people, er... Members of the REIC (Real estate Industrial Complex - real estate agents, brokers, contractors, etc..) fail to recognize is the economic fundamentals of this town don't bode well for the future of housing prices in our town. The most obvious to me are: 1) Real wages are flat since 1998 2)Median home prices are up 150% since 1998 3) Median wages times home prices is now at 7.5, this number was at 2.7 in 1998. Wages have not kept up with the cost of housing. The only real job creation in this town is warehouse work and REIC jobs. The REIC jobs will vanish in the next 6-12 months. NO OUR MARKET IS NOT DIFFERENT! In fact I would say that markets like ours, that had the most significant appreciation, will see the most significant depreciation! With this blog I will attempt to expose the lies and truth about the Bakersfield market!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Of course the Bakersfield maket is not diffrent. I think its more vulnerable than most. The commuters (to LA) will likely sell and leave once the prices in LA are more reasonable.

Bakersfield is going down.