Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Foreclosures and defaults continue to rise.

NOD's rise 148% YOY

Foreclosures rise 338% YOY

Bakersfield Californian:

April racked up another record month for local defaults and foreclosures, with 1,303 default notices sent out and 723 delinquent loans foreclosed on, the latest report from the Kern County Recorder’s office shows.

Since April 2007, however, they’ve jumped dramatically — more than doubling that month’s 526 default notices and more than quadrupling its 165 foreclosures.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

McAllister Ranch developer defaults on $235 million loan

From the Bakersfield Californian:

The developer behind southwest Bakersfield’s planned McAllister Ranch golf course community has defaulted on a $235 million loan against the property, the latest in a series of signs suggesting the project may be in financial distress.

The planned 6,000-home neighborhood near Panama Lane and South Allen Road is also beset by lawsuits and legal filings alleging unpaid construction bills.

A default notice recorded Tuesday shows Irvine-based developer SunCal Cos. owes more than $4 million in late payments to lender Lehman Commercial Paper Inc., a New Jersey-based commercial money market dealer.

The filing is the first legal step in the foreclosure process, which could result in the property being repossessed if SunCal fails to right the debt. The notice lists the borrower as LBREP/L SunCal McAllister Ranch LLC, the affiliate company formed by SunCal for the McAllister Ranch project.

The 2,070-acre site already features a Greg Norman-designed golf course and partially built clubhouse. An artificial lake and parks are also in the master plan, company ads state.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Crisp and Cole update

Bakersfield Californian:

Hearing date set for David Crisp, Carl Cole

David Crisp, Carl Cole and three former Crisp, Cole & Associates employees accused of fraud in a state regulatory complaint are scheduled to appear in front of an administrative judge in Bakersfield this summer

A trial to examine the charges in a 25-page complaint filed by the Department of Real Estate last fall has been set to start on July 28 and run for three weeks, according to the Office of Administrative Hearings, the state department that runs such trials. Those named in the complaint, which alleges the group misled lenders in obtaining more than $12 million worth of loans, could be stripped of their real estate licenses.

Officials are looking for an appropriate venue to hold the trial, Pool said. A Bakersfield Masonic Temple is being considered as the trial site, but nothing has been finalized, he said.

As of April 16, more than $70 million worth of loans linked to Crisp, Cole, family members and associates have been foreclosed on or defaulted on, according to an ongoing Californian tally.

Developer goes bust

Bakersfield Californian:

Developer with local projects files for bankruptcy

A Sacramento homebuilder with several troubled Kern projects filed for bankruptcy protection Wednesday.

John D. Reynen of Reynen & Bardis Communities Inc., along with his wife Judy M. Reynen, filed for Chapter 11 protection as individuals saddled primarily with business debts, court documents filed in a federal bankruptcy court in Sacramento show.

Some other creditors:
• Wells Fargo Bank, $29 million
• IndyMac Bank, $26.8 million
• Comerica, $21.5 million
• Chase Bank, $17.5 million

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Coming to a city near you

We sounded the alarm on CRE some time back, however, the local "experts" think otherwise.

From the Financial Times:

Regulator fears wave of bank failures

US bank failures could rise above “historical norms” as a weakening economy puts pressure on badly underwritten loans, particularly in commercial real estate, according to a bank regulator.

In an interview with the Financial Times, John Dugan, who oversees about 1,700 national banks as comptroller of the currency, said the growing problems for lenders follow a period of almost four years in which no institution regulated by his agency had failed.

“We’re going to have some more bank failures that will come back more to historical norms and may go above that with time,” he said. “That is a natural consequence of the economy going from historically exceptionally benign credit conditions to something that is more normal to something you would get in a downturn.”

Mr Dugan’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is particularly worried about lending by smaller banks to commercial real estate developers for condominiums and other projects. More than a third of smaller community banks have made commercial property loans that exceed 300 per cent of their capital, the OCC says. By comparison, in 1987, when hundreds of banks failed amid a commercial property collapse, such banks had commercial property loans equal to 175 per cent of their capital.

Bakersfield prices down 29% from the peak

March 2008 DQ News.com numbers are out:

Bakersfield Median is down 20.56% YOY (down to $225,000)

Bakersfield Median peaked at $315,000 - we are now down 28.58% from the high.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Kern County $46 million to $66 million in the hole.

From the Central Valley Business Times:

Kern County may impose a hiring freeze as one way to curtail costs in the face of an estimated deficit of between $46 million and $66 million for the coming fiscal year that starts July 1.

The county’s board of supervisors will consider a virtual freeze on county hiring as well as curtailing non-personnel spending at their meeting Tuesday.


Bakersfield.com:

County Administrative Officer Ron Errea will deliver a proposal asking the board to give him the power to clamp down on county hiring and spending.

All new hires — and hiring of county “extra help” part-timers — would have to be approved by Errea’s office.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Notices of defaults continue to grow

The most recent details of NOD's are available from Fidelity Title. For the week we had 432 defaults. If we continue at that pace we will have 22,464 defaults in Kern County this year. What a disaster. All of the bottom callers need to check their analysis before they continue with their mind numbing drivel about how "now is the time to buy".

With defaults increasing, unemployment increasing and credit continuing to be very tight there is no way we are at the bottom.

NOD list from Fidelity.com.

California unemployment hits 6.2%; worse than Ohio, Pennsylvania

From the LA Times.com:

California's unemployment rate rose by a whopping half a percentage point in March, reaching 6.2% as a weakening economy shed jobs in the ailing construction and financial activities sectors. In all, 1.13 million were unemployed

"This is a huge increase," said Howard Roth, chief economist for the state Department of Finance. He blamed the steady rise in joblessness -- up from 5.0% in March 2007 -- on deterioration of the crucial housing market. "The bubble has a slow leak, so it's hard to tell how long it will take" to fully deflate, he said.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

All Central Valley financial institutions feeling real estate impact, except one?

Numerous Central Valley financial institutions are hurting. However, there is one that appears to be bucking the trend. Are they really bucking the trend or is something else going on?

Here is a sampling of some recent financial results from Central Valley financial institutions.


Kern Schools FCU (Bakersfield):

Based on the 2007 annual report, which I received today, they are showing a decline in net income (from 2006 to 2007) of 71%. According to their report "This drop was caused by loan losses in 2007 totaling $13.055 million, compared to none in 2006".

That is a serious adjustment in loan losses and loan loss provision. However, I would expect loan losses to continue to go up as we find more homedebtors underwater. Look for 2008 losses to be much higher due to declining real estate values, an increase in unemployment and more foreclosures.

American River Bank (Sacramento):


American River Bankshares (NASDAQ: AMRB) of Sacramento, parent company of American River Bank, says its net income in the first quarter dropped 12.1 percent from year-ago levels to $1,833,000 from $2,086,000 during the first quarter of 2007.

“Clearly, first quarter earnings were negatively impacted by the $4 million increase from year end in our non-performing loans to nearly $12 million,” says David Taber, president and CEO. “We have a seasoned credit administration team in place that is managing our non-performing loans by establishing appropriate reserves and being proactive towards resolution of these credits."




Pacific State Bank (Stockton):

A squeeze on its interest margins helped lower profits at Pacific State Bancorp (NASDAQ: PSBC) of Stockton in the first quarter, according to Steven Rosso, president and C.E.O.

An increase of $45,000 ($210,000 total addition) or 27.3 percent in the provision for loan losses in the first quarter of 2008 over 2007 levels reflects the weakening economic environment within the bank's service areas, which management is actively monitoring and which may indicate the need to record additional provision in the future, it says.

Capital Corp of the West (Merced):


Capital Corp of the West (NASDAQ: CCOW) of Merced, parent company of County Bank, one of the Central Valley’s largest community banks, says it expects to report a net loss for 2007 of about $4 million, once everything is added up.

The bank says it’s “primarily as a result of the rapid decline in real estate values in California's Central Valley in the fourth quarter of 2007.”

It’s telling the Securities and Exchange Commission that it still cannot file the financials for last year because of the number of its loans it has to review “and the inability to obtain timely appraisals and other supporting market information.”

The company says certain of loans require an adverse classification and a substantially greater provision for possible loan losses.

“The company has also concluded that it had material weaknesses in its credit/lending and accounting functions,” it says. “The material weaknesses relate to the proper credit risk classification of loans, establishing the level of its allowance for loan losses, accounting for housing tax partnerships and certain other matters.”


San Joaquin Bank

First let me say I have no stock position in this bank. Also, this is not investment advice, I just find it interesting that one bank can report record profits in this declining market while every other bank is getting hammered with losses related to the housing and credit crises. How did they do it? Great risk management or was it an unjustified adjustment in their loan loss provision?

San Joaquin Bank (Bakersfield):


San Joaquin Bancorp (OTCBB: SJQU) of Bakersfield says its net income after tax was $9.4 million last year, an increase of 11 percent compared to $8.5 million in net income reported for 2006.

Dilute earnings per share in 2007 were $2.54, compared to $2.29 per diluted share reported for 2006, also an increase of 11 percent.

"We are pleased with the company’s performance in 2007 which represents our 24th consecutive year of record profits,” says Bart Hill, company president

From their 10k filing (Yahoo.com):

We reported record annual net income of $9,418,000 for the year ended December 31, 2007. The majority of the increase in 2007 came from increased net interest income and a reduction in the provision for loan losses.


How can a financial institution justify reducing their loan loss provision in an environment like this? All of the Central Valley institutions listed above are doing the opposite. If you look at the reports from the major financial institutions on Wall Street, they are dramatically increasing their loan loss provisions to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.

The Bakersfield Californian did a recent story on the CEO where they asked some tough questions of him.

Q. What is your favorite thing about doing business in Bakersfield and Kern County?

A. The people in Kern County are family oriented, friendly and hard working. That’s a winning combination for business.

Q. What’s a fun fact about you?

A. It’s sort of odd I’m a sailor in Bakersfield. I grew up sailing in the San Francisco Bay. I sail regularly on the coast. When the America’s Cup is on, I’m probably the only one in town watching it.


Based on that interview I guess we will never find out why they lowered their loan loss provision in what has been called the most difficult time for financial institutions since the Great Depression.

REIC members are really hurting right now

Hat tip to Fred

Recall when we were told that one of the companies listed below was doing great and we were all idiots. I guess we were right!

Bakersfield Californian:

The turmoil in the real estate industry has claimed another casualty, this time engulfing a high-profile Bakersfield home loan officer.

Robert Russo, who advertised as “Bakersfield’s Refi Guy” and twice ran for city political seats, filed for Chapter 13 personal bankruptcy on March 26.

“I cornered myself in that market of refi and it’s gone,” Russo, 49, said Thursday.

“That’s why it’s so scary now in this business,” Cheatwood said.

Last spring, Cheatwood was left with $22,000 worth of unpaid expenses when Mortgage Tree, the Modesto company she had worked for since 2001, closed its doors. Money was due to appraisers, utility companies and employees, she said. Cheatwood dipped into her retirement to recover, and now does loans for a locally owned mortgage banking company, Golden Empire Mortgage Inc.



Bakersfield Californian:

A Bakersfield real estate broker with a long history of messy property ownership has filed for personal bankruptcy

Khamphou Siripane, the head of Global Realty & Investment and All Community Home Loans Inc., filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy on March 25.

He may owe as much as $500,000 to as many as 49 creditors, according to the bankruptcy filing.

Kern County records indicate Siripane’s personal real estate deals have been clouded for years by tax liens, foreclosure filings and property lawsuit notices.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

4 years of equity is GONE!

From DQnews.com:

The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, the lowest since $380,000 in April 2004.

The weak start to the home buying season also saw another record dive in the median sales price, the result of depreciation, slow sales for higher-priced abodes and growing sales for discounted homes fresh out of foreclosure.

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Foreclosures everywhere! County reviewing 40,000 homes

Developer foreclosures - Bakersfield Californian:

$74 million loan to Irvine-based developer SunCal Cos. for a major housing project in Shafter was foreclosed on Wednesday morning at a public auction on City Hall steps.

SunCal’s outstanding debt to national homebuilder Lennar Corp. had reached almost $86 million with interest and fees by auction time. Opening bids for the 515-acre site started at $10 million. No one made an offer, so the property went back to Lennar.

A pair of Wasco properties borrowed against by Eagle Meadows of Wasco companies operated by Stockton-based developer Kent Hoggan went back to lender Investment Grade Loans Inc. after no one answered the opening bid call at $100,000 apiece.

About 77 acres at Gromer and Magnolia avenues and 75 acres near Palm and Filburn avenues carried about $4.2 million in debt. Both are currently agricultural sites.


Sacramento developers finding out Bakersfield's streets are not paved with gold, from the Bakersfield Californian:

They live in one of eight homes completed before Sacramento developer Reynen & Bardis Communities Inc. halted construction here late last year, leaving idle partially constructed houses on many of the cul-de-sac’s dirt lots.

Hidden Grove’s future and that of at least seven other local Reynen & Bardis projects in Bakersfield, Wasco and Shafter are up in the air as the homebuilder’s finances teeter.

Still, Reynen & Bardis is among a dozen or so developers who have defaulted on Kern projects carrying loans of $2 million or more, according to an ongoing Californian survey.

It’s the first time metropolitan Bakersfield has seen such a spike in developer defaults and foreclosures, real estate professionals say, and it’s unclear what the final impact will be.

Foreclosures reach a new record, again, Bakersfield Californian:

Foreclosures reached another new high in Kern last month, according to the latest report from the Kern County Recorder’s office.

The monthly tally shows 586 properties foreclosed in February, up from 512
the previous month and 107 in February 2007.

Default notices, meanwhile, arrived at a steady pace despite the short month, with 1,177 recorded. That’s just two more than January’s count, but more than double the 502 sent out a year ago.



The following was posted on the Counties website. Kern Assesors Website:

Kern Residence Values Decline

The Assessor is in the process of reviewing more than 40,000 residential properties in Kern County as a reduction may be necessary for these properties due to the downturn in the housing market. These reviews are for purchases that occurred between July, 2004 and December, 2007. The Assessor will be determining the market value of these properties for January 1st, 2008. If the market value for January 1st, 2008 is less than your current assessed value, an adjustment will be made. This adjusted value will be reflected on the 2008-2009 tax bills. All properties that have a lower value will receive notification via US mail by July 15th, 2008. It is not necessary at this time to contact the Assessor’s Office, the review will be automatic. If, by the 1st of August, you have not received a determination of value from the Assessor’s Office, and you feel your value is too high, please contact the Assessor’s Office at (661) 868-3485.

Friday, February 29, 2008

"Los Angeles" from turning into a vast, broken metropolis stretching from Tijuana to Bakersfield.

From the LA Times:
But it was a reminder, too, that the truly rural outposts of Los Angeles County -- the nation's top agricultural county not so long ago -- are withering away. And this one happens to abut the proposed site of the largest planned community in county history.Neenach -- and a smattering of other forlorn towns hidden between Lancaster and the Grapevine -- will be the subject of a fierce dispute in the coming year over when enough is enough in Southern California.

On one side, advocates will wave studies showing that there are 6 million more people headed this way in the next 20 years, people who will need roofs over their heads. On the other side, activists will point out that once construction starts here -- above the historical northern boundary of the region's development -- there will be nothing to keep "Los Angeles" from turning into a vast, broken metropolis stretching from Tijuana to Bakersfield.

It would all be very apocalyptic-sounding, if only it was the kind of thing that got Neenach bent out of shape.

When the abutting development is built -- if it is built -- it will be called Centennial. It would be the end, for all intents and purposes, of Neenach.

Billed as a "new town," Centennial would be constructed on a chunk of the 165-year-old Tejon Ranch. There would be 23,000 homes, eight elementary schools, three fire stations.

Developers perpare for housing market surge?

The Bakersfield Californian is running a story this week titled " Developers prepare for housing market surge". Please read the story, but before you do, please read what they said in January 2007. Please keep in mind what actually happened in 2007.


Local real estate insiders scoff at predicted 'nose dive'

Jan 8, 2007
By Ryan Schuster, Californian staff writer

Bakersfield's housing market is still healthy and is simply going through a market correction that was inevitable after its meteoric rise, according to several local real estate professionals."I don't think it's all doom and gloom," said Jon Busby, a real estate agent with Bakersfield Premier Realty. "We had the investors that came and the builders that came and drove the prices up. It's just correcting itself now."

In December there were 3,181 homes listed on the market, down 13 percent from the month before, according to a preliminary report on December sales compiled by local appraiser Gary Crabtree. The full report is due out next week.

The preliminary report also shows the median list price of existing homes declined from $289,000 in November to $288,000 in December.

"Listings are going down," Crabtree said. "Sellers have come to the realization that the party is over and they can no longer get the prices they were expecting before. We've reached a plateau and that plateau is holding. It is not taking this gigantic nose dive everyone was predicting."

After being one of the nation's hottest real estate markets in recent years, some have described local market conditions as a bubble and predicted Bakersfield's real estate market will be one of the nation's worst in 2007.

But local real estate experts disagree.

"They are crazy. We don't have one of the worst housing markets in the country," said Ray Karpe, the president of Karpe Real Estate Center and the incoming president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors. "The market is not bad at all. The market has just slowed. It has gone from a ridiculously good market to a good market. We couldn't maintain that forever."

The real estate slowdown has led homebuilders to scale back their building pace locally.

In November, 120 building permits were pulled for single family residences in the city of Bakersfield, down from 225 a year earlier and 650 in August 2005.

Crabtree projects that home prices will decline by about 5 percent in 2007, but he says more dire national projections are off base.

"They don't see the whole picture," Crabtree said. "They're not here. They don't have their feet on the ground. They don't know what's going on."

Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist with the California Association of Realtors, anticipates a 7 percent drop in the statewide median sales price in 2007. She said areas like Bakersfield that had a wave of new construction during the housing boom, adding more supply, will experience greater price decreases.

But she said while the housing market is softening, she doesn't believe it is a bubble.
She said she doesn't foresee a real estate crash like the one in the mid-1990s unless the economy slips into recession, causing mass job losses.

"It's all relative. The housing market in general has been accused of being a bubble," Appleton-Young said. "There has been talk of a bubble for four years. In the last year and a half we have seen a significant decline in sales. But the actual decline in prices has been slower. What is protecting the market is we have an improving economy."

But increased foreclosures and a rise in interest rates could spell trouble for the housing market, Appleton-Young said.

Crabtree said last year he routinely saw between 20 and 30 notices of default filed a month. The numbers jumped to 41 in November 2005 and 179 in November 2006.

Local appraiser Jeremy Jans anticipates the local market will actually pick up a little this spring, despite a possible increase in home listings some are predicting.

"Although we will not get back to where it was, it will be a strong market this year," Jans said.

"We are a unique market. We always react a lot slower than everyone else. We are a lot more affordable than other places."

Bakersfield's relatively affordable housing market compared to the rest of the state has prevented a more dramatic market correction, according to Delores Conway, the director of the
Casden Forecast at USC's Lusk Center for Real Estate.

"It's slowing like all places are slowing because the speculators are pretty much gone," Conway said. "Bakersfield has been fairly strong, partly because of lower prices and the shift in population into central California.

"In Southern California we are pretty much land constrained. Bakersfield can still build. As long as the builders don't get crazy, there still is demand. It's just that the housing market is returning to more of a normal level."


THIS WAS MY REPSONSE - MY RESPONSE

Unemployment rate up 13% YOY

If we are losing jobs who will buy all of these homes? If there are less people employed who will rent all of these homes that are available for rent? What will be the impact on prices?


Bakersfield Californian:

Kern County’s unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent in January, up from 9.4 percent in December and 8.8 percent a year before, according to data released Friday by the state Employment Development Department.

Most of the 11,500 jobs lost countywide between December and January — 8,600 of them — were farm-related, data show. The second-largest category of jobs lost that month was that of trade, transportation and utilities, where 1,000 positions were eliminated. In no main category were jobs created in Kern that month.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Fremont also said it faces a "significant liquidity risk"

Fremont stock is tanking after hours based on big news.

From Yahoo News:

Fremont General Corp., the holding company for Fremont Investment & Loan, said Thursday because it might have to record more write-downs than it originally recorded and is considering putting itself up for sale.

Fremont also said it faces a "significant liquidity risk" and has opted to defer some payments on its junior debt, sending its shares down in late trading.

The company said in connection with ongoing reviews and as it prepared its year-end financial statements, it found it might have to record additional asset write-downs and reserves, which could require the bank to adjust its regulatory capital downward.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

High end starting to go down. $300,000 plus price reductions.






This home, at 19480 PADRON CT, Bakersfield, CA 93314, has been reduced $305,000 since it was listed in July 2007.


Price Reduced: 08/29/07 -- $1,300,000 to $1,000,900
Price Increased: 09/14/07 -- $1,000,900 to $1,900,000
Price Reduced: 09/16/07 -- $1,900,000 to $1,095,000
Price Reduced: 02/14/08 -- $1,095,000 to $995,000




This home at, 3006 SPRINGBANK CT, Bakersfield, CA 93311, has been reduced $301,000 since it was listed February 19, 2007.
Price Reduced: 06/20/07 -- $1,250,000 to $1,225,000
Price Reduced: 08/08/07 -- $1,225,000 to $1,199,000
Price Reduced: 02/04/08 -- $1,199,000 to $949,000

Where will all the children go?

Michael Jackson facing foreclosure:

Yahoo.com:

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Michael Jackson's famed Neverland Valley Ranch in California will be foreclosed and sold on March 19 unless the pop star pays a balance of nearly $25 million, property records showed on Tuesday.

FoxNews.com celebrity columnist Roger Friedman reported on the Web site http://www.foxnews.com/) that Jackson has been formally apprised of the foreclosure and that legal documents have also been filed with the Santa Barbara County Recorder's office.

"You are in default of a deed of trust ...," Jackson was told in the five-page filing, according to a copy of the document published by FoxNews.com. "Unless you take action to protect your property it may be sold at a public sale."

According to the documents, if Jackson fails to pay the outstanding balance, estimated at $24.5 million, Neverland would be sold to the highest bidder at a public auction on the courthouse steps.

The county recorder's Web site shows that a Notice of Trustees Sale was filed against Neverland Valley Ranch on Monday but no further details were available and a spokeswoman for the office declined to comment.

Jackson's publicist, Raymone Bain, did not return calls seeking comment on the foreclosure notice.

The onetime "King of Pop" has owned the 2,800-acre (1,133-ha) ranch in the rolling foothills above the California coast since 1988, naming it after the whimsical island where children never grow up in J.M. Barrie's Peter Pan stories.

Carl Cole selling real estate in Ventura County now?

UPDATE:


Rob Dawg's site:

3:09PM PST - Carl Cole is no longer associated with Keller Willams Camarillo. Praphrasing; "Bothe the distance and difference in markets, it just isn't a good fit." My brief conversation indicated that Mr. Cole was on premises and she asked if I wanted to talk with him. I declined. I expressed my sadness at his circumstance and made it clear I was sympathetic to his having been decieved but that I was not prepared to let happen to Ventura county what happened in Bakersfield. It was at this point that the K-W front office person made it clear he would not be joining the team


Bakersfield Californain:

He is no longer affiliated with the company,” said Cristina Better, team leader of Keller Williams Realty’s branch in Camarillo, at about 4:50 p.m. Tuesday.

Earlier Tuesday, The Californian reported Keller Williams Realty recently hired Cole, 60, to work in its Camarillo branch as a broker/associate, according to a Feb 3. advertisement placed with the Ventura County Star newspaper



From Eyewitness News.com:



Carl Cole, of the former real estate duo, Crisp and Cole has a new job in a different real estate market.

29 Eyewitness News put a call into the real estate mogul this morning and before getting hung up on, we learned that cole got a job selling real estate on the coast in Camarillo. Keller Williams Reality recently hired Cole as a broker-associate according to its website.

Carl Cole is still under investigation by the FBI i and the Department of Real Estate for real estate fraud.

From the Bakersfield Californian:



Carl Cole, the former Crisp & Cole Real Estate broker and the subject of an ongoing FBI investigation, has a new job selling real estate on the coast

Keller Williams Realty recently hired Cole, 60, to work in its Camarillo branch as a broker/associate, according to a Feb 3. advertisement placed with the Ventura County Star newspaper.

Cole is also listed as a sales associate on the branch’s Web site, which shows he has four homes listed for sale in Oxnard, Port Hueneme and Camarillo.

When reached by phone at his new office this morning, Cole hung up.

Crisp and Cole realtors turning on each other.

Looks like the rats are starting to leave the sinking ship. Former C&C realtor Scott Reynolds attorney speaks out for his client, as does Scott Reynolds and Ty Stewart.

From KGET.com: (BE SURE TO WATCH THE VIDEO)

Former Crisp and Cole real estate agent Scott Reynolds didn't want to talk with us on camera about his former employer David Crisp, but his defense attorney says Reynolds has been talking to the authorities.

"We have been in contact with the FBI and in contact with the prosecutors, I think that's an open fact right now," said defense attorney Carl Faller

Reynolds bought the property from David Crisp and Carl Cole in July 2006 for $414 thousand with 100-percent financing from SunTrust mortgage. The house went into foreclosure in December, and eventually sold for $240 thousand. That's a loss to the lender of at least $174 thousand.

"David Crisp involved a lot of folks: employees, friends, old high school friends in some land deals that he represented to be totally legitimate," Faller said. "But in retrospect they might have been a little sketchy."

Not so, says former Crisp and Cole broker Ty Stewart.

Crisp is now living with Stewart at a Southern Oaks home.

"I have worked for David and Carl from the very beginning. And I wasn't taken advantage of," Stewart said. "But I can only speak for myself."

"Everybody thinks that his situation is funny, and it's just desserts, so they are having a good time with it. You know, but he's gotta live his life," Stewart said

For now, Crisp is staying with stewart at a home in Southern Oaks.

"They are not bad people. And, I think that helping someone out or trying to put someone's life back together with them is not a bad thing," Stewart said

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Final January 2008 numbers out. We are down 28% from the peak.

January 2008 Numbers. All California county loses are significant - no area was has been spared.

Bakersfield down 17.87% YOY. The median price is now $224,000. The median price peaked at around $310,000. We are now down 28% from the peak.


What does the future hold? Look at inventory and defaults/foreclosures, from the Bakersfield Californian:

The number of bank-owned properties listed on the Bakersfield Multiple Listing Service, an index of properties for sale, topped the 1,000 mark Wednesday, according to Jon Vaughn, a real estate agent with RE/MAX Magic and the host of a morning real estate radio show, Real Estate Today.

The MLS showed 1,017 bank-owned properties out of a total of 5,023 as of Wednesday, Vaughn said.

“It’s going to make it really difficult for sellers out there who are trying to sell properties,” Vaughn said. The increasing inventory will continue to drive prices down, he said.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

California cities dropping like flies. I thought this mess was contained?

SFgate.com:

Half Moon Bay is wrestling with unpleasant options for responding to a court ruling that officials say threatens the "very existence of our city government" - a $36.8 million judgment against the city for turning a proposed housing development site into wetlands.

Under the worst-case scenario, officials say, Half Moon Bay would become the first Bay Area city forced to dissolve, and the coastal town's land would become an unincorporated part of San Mateo County.

Vallejo, Ca On The Brink Of Bankruptcy

Coming to a city near you?

NBC11.com:

The city of Vallejo is on the brink of becoming the first California city ever to declare bankruptcy, City Council members said Tuesday.

Vallejo may run out of cash as early as March, council member Stephanie Gomes said.

"We've spending more than we've been making for 20 years and it's to pay the piper."

Council members Joanne Schivley and Gomes have announced they will host a town hall meeting this Thursday to discuss the very real possibility of bankruptcy.

Crisp Update. By the way "Your soul is in jeopardy"

Be sure to watch the video at the KRAB link.

From KRAB Radio :

As you'll see in the video, I tried to be civil for the most part. But I did call him a name at the end. But I did it for all the right reasons. It's sad that this guy is eating out and cruising around in an expensive Mercedes, while former customers of his are getting put out on their asses because they trusted this guy.

Many of the people he screwed were good, working-class Bakons like you and I. Just people who thought they could buy a house to raise their families in. But really, David Crisp slammed them into unrealistic deals just so he could go on playing Bakersfield's version of Richie Rich.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

SoCal home foreclosures increase 433 percent

Quick math - 1,834 foreclosures times 12 = 22,008 foreclosures. In a county with 140,000 families in homes, this is going to get UGLY!


From Central Valley Business Times:

Homes plunging into foreclosure in Southern California in January increased by 433 percent over January 2007, according to figures compiled by Default Research Inc. of Mt. Pleasant, Pa., which markets foreclosure real estate data.

There were 9,885 homes in Los Angeles County alone that were in one of the stages of foreclosure last month, compared to 6,979 in December, according to Default Research.

Based on population, Riverside County was the hardest hit in Southern California in January 2008 with 8,554 new foreclosures for a foreclosure rate of 6.34 percent.

Kern County is also included in Default Research’s report Thursday. There were 1,834 homes in foreclosure in Kern County last month, a rate of 4.09 percent.

“The word recession has been all over the news for the past few weeks and it is vibrating off the mountains in several California counties,” says Serdar Bankaci, founder of Default Research. “Southern California foreclosures will continue to rise as more adjustable rate mortgages reset and people are unable to make their payments. Combine that with declining home values, the rising unemployment rate and the economic slowdown, and there are sure to be more foreclosures in the coming months.”

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Capitulation

DR Horton Website Details

Press Release with details

To all those who already own in these neighborhoods, you have just been fucked! You might want to consider walking away, as you are now 50% underwater on your "investment".

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Now the stronger hands are folding

From Forbes.com:


Allied Van Lines Files for Bankruptcy

Moving company Allied Van Lines Inc., along with its corporate parent Sirva Inc., filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday, the latest victim of a heavy debt load and the downturn in the U.S. housing industry.

In addition to its heavy debt load, the company's relocation services business has been slammed by the downturn in the U.S. housing market.

"Specifically, declining home prices have increased the number of homes the debtors have been required to purchase and subsequently sell for a loss," Sirva said in court papers


LV Review Journal:

Developer stops making interest payments on $500 million in land-backed loans

Focus Property Group, one of the largest developers in Southern Nevada, has stopped making interest payments on $500 million in loans secured by 4,800 acres in the Las Vegas Valley, Pahrump and Victorville, Calif., company executives said Monday.

The company said 2,100 acres of the land involved is in metropolitan Las Vegas, 1,700 acres in Pahrump and 1,000 in Victorville. The company started notifying lenders late last week that it would not make its February interest payments.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Price per square foot down 24% from the peak.

Hat tip fred hooper.

December 2007 numbers based on price per square foot are posted at Kerndata.com.:

The following data is a historic representation of average price per square
foot for single family residences sold between July 1994 and December 2007 in
Kern County.

While average home price is an interesting barometer, price per
square foot is more accurate in determining sales trends. Please keep in mind
that the numbers are derived from currently "worked" sales by the Kern County
Assessor's office and may not reflect recent activity


We are now at $138 per suare foot. That is 24% below the peak of $183 per square foot.

Also, sales volumes are so low you need to go back to February 1998 to find a lower month. This now represents the 16th month, out of the past 18 months where the price per square foot has been in decline (or flat).

These numbers do not include inflation or incentives, if they did the numbers would be even worse. If you look at the chart, the long term trend in price per square foot should be somewhere around $100-$105 per square foot.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Bakersfield is a catergory 4 market.




The good news is we are not a Category 5 market. Countrywide has tightened credit at the worst possible time for perma-bulls. Hat tip to socketsite.com.


Bakersfield has been designated a Category 4 by Countrywide. What does this mean? It means credit has tightened even more than before. Most other formerly hot markets are now designated as Cat 5 or Cat 4. Here are the details:

For Countrywide Purchase Loans:

Soft Market Category 4-5 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5%
Soft Market Category 1-3 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5% if the appraisal or appraisal review indicates any of the following: Declining Market, Oversupply, Marketing time over 6 months.

For Countrywide Home Equity Loans:

Soft Market Category 5 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by10%
Soft Market Category 4 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5%
Soft Market Category 1-3 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5% if
the appraisal or appraisal review indicates any of the following: Declining Market, Oversupply, Marketing time over 6 months.


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