Monday, December 01, 2008

It's official...recession began December 2007

NBER website:

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.
Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.


Anonymous said...

WHU??? no way, were in a recession? SARCASM

Bakersfield Bubble said...

- “We don’t believe we’re going to have a recession though.” [Vice President Dick Cheney, 1/30/08]

- “I think the experts will tell you we’re not in a recession.” [President Bush, 2/10/08]

- “The answer is, I don’t think we are in a recession right now.” [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 2/11/08]

– “First of all, we’re not in a recession.” [President Bush, 4/22/08]

– “The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession.” [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 5/7/08]

- “I don’t think we are” in a recession. [Director of the National Economic Council Keith Hennesy, 6/3/08]

– “I think we have avoided a recession.” [White House Budget Director Jim Nussle, 7/31/08]

– “I don’t think anybody could tell you right now if we’re in a recession or not” [Dana Perino, 10/7/08]

Anonymous said...

The recession and the housing bubble is Bush's fault?

Well, I guess we will see Obama fix everything. And the Govenator will fix California's problems, too.

The Democrats have a plan: Tax more and increase government spending.

I'm sure everything will starting turning aroud by February 2009.

Anonymous said...

Wonder if the real whores feel any remorse..I think not. I love to shove it in their face everytime I speak with one.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

LOL!!! I do the same thing!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

"I'm sure everything will starting turning aroud by February 2009."

Then buy a house...