Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Foreclosures and defaults continue to rise.

NOD's rise 148% YOY

Foreclosures rise 338% YOY

Bakersfield Californian:

April racked up another record month for local defaults and foreclosures, with 1,303 default notices sent out and 723 delinquent loans foreclosed on, the latest report from the Kern County Recorder’s office shows.

Since April 2007, however, they’ve jumped dramatically — more than doubling that month’s 526 default notices and more than quadrupling its 165 foreclosures.


rrastronomo said...

Hey Crispy, do you ever visit Ben's blog. I haven't for quiet some time. I don't know if you remember me but I posted a couple of time here and on Ben's HBB. My wife and I are still renting by Pin Oak Park. I remember you disclosing the fact that you're an accountant. Do you see any changes in businesses--any effects of the housing fiasco. We sold a little over a yr ago and there is a unit in the same complex selling for 50k less and the add states will take any reasonable offer. Best wishes to you. RJ

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I have gone to Ben's blog almost everyday since the spring of 2005. although I have not posted in a few months.

Locally numerous businesses are struggling. Sales tax receipts are down YOY which is a big indicator of local economic stress. Also, local unemployment is up. However, I think we might get a slight buffer from the commidity run up due to our local oil and ag; although I dont expect that to help housing prices. There are plenty of jobs in the oil patch if you want to work your ass off in the 100 degree heat this summer.

Yes, I am a CPA. But I am not offering advice as a CPA only as an anonymous blogger :).

Rob Dawg said...

And the NAR a few minutes ago singled out BKfield as a bright spot with increasing sales activity. LoL. They must count REO takebacks as sales.

Bakersfield Bubble said...


I am sure they count REO's as sales. Anything to continue their spin machine.

Until foreclosures decline significantly, I dont see how prices can increase. There is just too much supply and too little demand to asorb the ever increasing inventory. ECON 101!!!

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I thought you were joking Rob, they did single us out.

Rob Dawg said...

You thought I was joking? You can't make this sh¡t up. You know, Ventura has its problems but BKfield, Fresno, etc. are so totally screwed I don't even know where to start. $4 gas. BKfield to Burbank 2 hours each way and $40 gas. That idea is dead. The only people left laughing are the guys that bought the oil field and refinery after it was declared uneconomical a few years ago.

Wassup with CityInTheHills?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Yes there are guys in town making more money than they could have ever imagined. In 1997/1998 Kern River Crude was under $10 bbl, the La times wrote on the front page that Bakersfield was DONE. Today Kern River Crude is $105 bbl.

The local ag guys are making more money than they could have imagined a few years ago. Meanwhile a billion people go hungry.

This town will be the haves and have nots if this keeps up for a few more years. The top 99.999% will control most of our local wealth.

City in the hills has been renamed - Ghost town in the hills.

Rob Dawg said...

I almost call it GhostownInTheHills.

Seriously, the website shows nearly all the phases available and no talk of amenities being cut and none of the home bulder participants have singled it out in Wall Street conference calls for problems.

You are correct, i forgot to mention the AG sector. Sweet profits.

civil-ized said...

Just another sign that I thought I would mention...I am eternally cornfused with the decisions Castle & Cooke makes...they are now pushing to put a Target store at the Shops @ Riverwalk. Supposed to be a council meeting on it and such. The City guys are saying that they approved plans for small, high end boutique type shops, not large discount retailers.

I guess Castle & Cooke will do anything they can to make a buck right now. Makes you wonder what they will do in their insanely overpriced neighborhoods, just to get some sales going. Maybe sell lots to investors or lease out the empties to section 8...like Dell Webb did in Henderson, NV.

rrastronomo said...

We were close in buying a home in city but changed our minds. The home we were going to purchase was a 2400 sq ft home for 199K,the drawback was that an adjacent home dominated the backyard. Nice home though. We are getting more picky. DR Horton fronted the now defuncted Blue Sky Developers a million dollars to put the park and landscaping in--that was the deal breaker for me.

Loc said...

This is The WEAKEST housing bubble blog I've seen. One news headline every few weeks or so. try to do a better job, will ya!

WaitingToBuy said...

Well you can only beat a dead horse so much...I'm sure yours is better ya troll.

Rob Dawg said...

Now all the disaffected Bakersfield hoi poloi can flock to Centennial!

-Fifty7- said...

So how low do you guys think price per sq. ft. will go by the time it's all said and done?

Do you think it will return to pre-2000 prices at around 85-95 a sq. ft.? Any guesses?

nddl04 said...

I found this to be interesting... Nothing about the housing market has seemed right for the last few years, but, for me, this is the kicker. A friend of mine just bought a short sale home, where the owners had simply purchased another home at a better price, putting some of their jumbo loan money into the new purchase, and walked away from the latter. Just more of the same, people with no buying power abusing the system to get it.

The funny thing is that this blog is run by a realtor who counsels people into doing this. Her rationalization is that she isn't the "ruler of people's finances." So the fact that she coaches people into unethical situations, both during the bubble and now, is justified. Sounds like the excuse of an arms dealer.


civil-ized said...

Gotta love the real estate agents...lied to get people to buy during the boom - lying now to make a commision check. One had the nerve to tell us that "everybody is doing it" as in, walking away from their upside down house while they are purchasing their "dream home". Even said that your credit will only take a 100 point hit. How can they sleep at night?

I laugh every time I see the agent who tried to screw us - no longer driving his $80,000 Mercedes, or his 2 BMWs, no longer living in Brighton Estates - driving around in a used Honda. But then again, at 26 years old, a used Honda isn't bad for someone with no marketable skills.

Karma, balance, call it what you will. Lately, the trash that should not have been in our neighborhoods have been losing their houses and moving to neighborhoods that they should have been in to begin with. Take your thumping music and wild drinking parties to the 'hoods where they belong.

wannabuy said...

You thought I was joking? You can't make this sh¡t up.


Gotta love the real estate agents...lied to get people to buy during the boom - lying now to make a commision check.
This is Karma coming back to bite them. The desperation is palatable. We won't see panic until fall or late fall... but you can almost feel it coming.

All this news is starting to scare away buyers. Of my coworkers, the only ones buying... are the ones who really shouldn't (cannot afford). The latest trend: 'owners' underwater on their primary residence are bidding to upgrade to McMansions! So the walk away fleecing of the banks... hasn't even begun.

Got Popcorn?

civil-ized said...

Is it me, or do you guys see the same people that were "tricked" into over-buying houses with crazy loans, these are the same geniuses that are going to try "the walk away fleecing of the banks...to upgrade to McMansions!" The same morons that overpaid and then are foreclosing - ruining the values in the neighborhoods - are the same people who are going to drive the prices down even further by walking away from obligations that they most likely could pay - but just don't want to because they can buy the same cookie cutter house on the same block for $150,000 less than they owe.

The people doing the walk-aways are not the people who bought responsibly 5~10 years ago. In most cases, it is the people who bought in recent years near the peak.

All I have to say is, if they think for one minute that it will not hurt them long-term to walk away and take on another mortgage, they are extremely foolish. Homeowners insurance rates, car insurance rates, some employers, new cars, new bank accounts, credit cards, etc. - they all run your credit score before they sign you up as a new customer. Yes, get your popcorn and watch as these people spend years trying to fix the mess they are getting themselves into now.

They think they are so clever - that they can just walk away from a major obligation, buy a new McMansion and act like they are just doing it "because everybody else is...." so they gov'ment will just forgive all the debt.

Some food for thought...in order to qualify for a new house while you are currently in one, you have to financially qualify for BOTH houses. Even if they claim that they are going to rent out the old house, it will be obvious on the loan docs that what they owe and what they can rent their upside down houses for is not possible. And if they have missed any payments, or have any late payments on the house, cars or cards the underwriter will give them a harder time approving them.

I seriously wonder how many people will actually be able to jump through all the hoops necessary to pull it off. Some more serious dishonesty and tangled web weaving to try to better their situation without actually fixing the problem of their original irresponsibility.

Good luck to them. We are going to need lots of popcorn.

On the bright side, there is sure to be lots more renters with bad credit driving up the rental market soon. Good time to be a landlord.

wannabuy said...

Is it me, or do you guys see the same people that were "tricked" into over-buying houses with crazy loans, these are the same geniuses that are going to try "the walk away fleecing of the banks...to upgrade to McMansions!"

I'm seeing this at work.

It won't last. We pull credit reports. A serious enough infraction, if not pre-reported, is grounds for job suspension.

But if they report this to HR *right after* they pull it off... it could work. Let's just say I'm not going to advise and I'll just spectate.

Got Popcorn?

xs10shell said...

Have you seen the latest where they are considering passing developer costs on to the home buyers? I thought that was already done in the cost of the house anyway. But the claim is that it will be "Less expensive" for the buyer to pay a direct assessment of about 1.75% of cost. Right.

nddl04 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
nddl04 said...


Never fear, the end of the bubble is here, Q1, with 850 home purchases actually resulted in a decline in inventory, a sign of changes to come, horray!!!!

Of course... one would have to ignore the fact that in that same time frame, 3611 notices of default were filed, over 4x the sales.


I'm not sure the word "inventory" means what this local expert thinks it means.

-Fifty7- said...


The author/poster of the "Bakersfield 1st quarter update" you links clearly states that he was using "current inventory" info to see how inventory has differed in the last year as a recap nothing more. He then goes on to state that he is niether calling the "bottom" of the market nor the future of the market and clearly says that if foreclosures continue price decline will also continue.

nddl04 said...

Yeah, I see his latest comment, added after my post above. I was a bit harsh in my sarcasm... I just had an issue with the following assumptions.

1. Sales rates, unless I'm crazy, aren't they down by nearly 40% Q1'07 over Q1'08?
2. Inventory: Looking at the shelf is a bit short-sighted. The article implied declining inventories either now or on the horizon. Q1, by any measure, did nothing to stop the accelerating increase to actual inventory.
3. Reaction time: The housing market is very inefficient, and doesn't correct overnight. In my humble opinion, the market correction we are experiencing at present is due to market changes from last year. The default to sales gap at present won't have a real effect on prices until later this year. The sales prices won't stop their downward trend until that gap closes on inventory levels. On our way to true price "leveling" we have a few milestones remaining.
a. A negative inflection in the default notice rate.
b. Shelf inventory exceeds "stock-room" inventory
c. Sales numbers exceed default rate
d. Inventory returns to normal levels.
Considering we are at the point of uncertainty as to where "a" will occur, and add in a 6 month delay in price reaction, we are looking at a long sad road.

I reject the notion that the article carried no implication of prediction, but recognize that he did leave himself an out. To his benefit, I think it is a great time for the realtor's that stuck it out. The sales market may be weaker, but there is less competition for work. If it were my line of work, I'd see what I could do for the banks to turn as much inventory over as quickly as possible and get a cut of each sale. A 40% home value reduction from peak doesn't matter if you are making double the sales. I would just cross your fingers that the job market doesn't flood with half-baked realtors again. Just my humble analysis, but I'm certainly no expert.

Certified Real-Estate Market Analyst (Hey, now I am!)

hankmeister said...

I would submit there is a much larger goblin lurking in the shadows. Behind all the existing residential property on the market at the retail level (homes if you will). The number of outstanding paper residential lots is enormous. The number of building permits is nowhere near the volume to eat through lots out there in next 5 years.
I foresee an existed period (5-8 years) of market saturation.

Anonymous said...

Hi Crispy,

Hadn't seen you post on Ben's blog recently. Miss seeing your comments. Ben is on the road this week. He was in San Diego yesterday, LA today, and tomorrow he will be in SF.

Take care

civil-ized said...

Any news on Castle & Cooke lately? I see they have made some changes at Village Green and pushed the Target store through at the River Walk shops.

xs10shell said...

Now the blogs are going down. Check out the link to Ca Central Coast. Looks like part of a lawsuit. Ed Palmer?

xs10shell said...

The Modesto & Merced bubble blog is closed, too. I guess the reason for being is proved and over.

nddl04 said...


Ok, I spit out my coke when I saw this listing.

WaitingToBuy said...


Ya when you can get this for $325,000....look at the sqft difference!

nddl04 said...

I've noticed a rash of horribly overpriced listings that have been posted the last couple of weeks. I think it is a combination of Alt-A loans about to be upset and people drinking the "MLS inventory is dropping" koolaid bullshat.

A friend of mine is a realtor. She knows a few who bait their clients by telling them they will get what they want for the home, then quickly turning around and asking them to drop the price by 50-100k and recommending short-sale. They tell them what they want to hear to get them in the door.

I can imagine what a govt bailout would look like. People sitting on homes, listing them at overpriced values with no incentive to make the sale and paying low prices, courtesy of the American taxpayer.

Anonymous said...