Recession signals increase

The Sept S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 4.9% y/o/y, the biggest drop since the data began in 1988.

The declines in the national figure are notable for two reasons. First, the 3rd quarter decline, at 1.7%, was the largest quarterly decline in the index’s 21-year history. And, second, the year-over-year decline posted its second consecutive record low at -4.5%. Consistent with prior 2007 reports, there is no real positive news in today’s data. Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns on both an annual and monthly basis.

All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland and Seattle -- show continued deceleration in returns.

From Bloomberg:

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Winnebago Industries Inc., Thor Industries Inc. and other U.S. recreational-vehicle makers will probably say shipments fell in 2007 for the first time in six years, a sign the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.

For the past three decades, deliveries of motor homes and travel trailers have dropped before each decline in the U.S. economy, giving the $15 billion industry a reputation as a bellwether. As the U.S. housing slump worsens, gasoline prices rise and consumer confidence wanes, RV sales are forecast to slide this year and next.


From Businessweek:

Some 5,400 Harley-Davidson Inc. workers are out of work this week as the motorcycle maker cuts production because of falling sales.

The Milwaukee-based company announced in September it would shut down production at plants in Wisconsin, Kansas City, Mo., and York, Pa., this week as part of a planned cut in production.