Friday, December 15, 2006

Local home sale prices will continue to fall

Home prices continue to drop, down 3.5% YOY (year over year). Also, the inventory is at approximately 3,800 homes. We started last year with about 1,750 homes. I predict that a tsunami of listing's hit the market beginning the first few months of the year. This will only had to the supply/demand problem we have. I think Gary's comments below, of a 5 % decline, are very conservative. However, at least he is not cheerleading like the other members of the REIC.


From the Bakersfield Californian:

Local home sale prices will continue to fall

The Bakersfield Californian Thursday, Dec 14 2006 7:30 PM
Last Updated: Thursday, Dec 14 2006 7:35 PM

Existing home sale prices in the Bakersfield area will decline by about 5 percent in 2007, local appraiser Gary Crabtree projects. The median sale price of existing homes in metropolitan Bakersfield was $279,900 in November, down 3.5 percent from the same period a year before, Crabtree said.

"It's a correction and the correction is taking place all over the state and the country," Crabtree said. Crabtree said the number of existing home sales in November -- 340 -- was down almost 33 percent from the number of sales recorded in November 2005, the result of high supply and declining demand. "When that happens, the price is going to adjust," Crabtree said.


http://www.bakersfield.com/137/story/89469.html



Let's look back at what realtors said after last month's report. Why don't the reporters follow up with these cheerleaders and ask them "Were you lying to me last time we spoke?" http://www.bakersfield.com/137/story/79681.html:

Robert Kleinhenz, the association's deputy chief economist, said he expects Bakersfield's median house price to remain flat or possibly increase slightly next year.

The area has strong job and population growth, Kleinhenz said, and "that's going to support a market that's a little bit more buoyant."

"The drop-off in sales in Bakersfield is not quite as severe," Kleinhenz said. "It's actually faring much better than many other central areas."

Local real estate agencies are starting to get more phone calls and hold more open houses.
Activity is increasing, but it hasn't had a dramatic impact on sales yet, local agent Nancy Harper said.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's a correction and the correction is taking place all over the state and the country,"

This is no correction this is housing doom. Were talking 50% decline by 2009. Massive amounts of foreclosures, short sells are beginning take place. Hundred of thousands of unsold speculative property just eating away at the pocket books of would be real estate moguls.

Crabtree is just trying to cover his ass for all the over appraisals that he made in last several months that are getting destroyed. The days of appraisals magically meeting the loan amount an FB can qualify for are over.

Now the FRAUD will be uncovered and the crooked loan officers, realtors and apprisals will be seen as who they really are, destroyers of the economic system in America. These people are crooks and I hope to see lengthy prison sentences for the worst offenders.

Houisng Doom 2007.

crashbabycrash said...

So let me get this straight. Home values have tripled and Gary here thinks we will see a total of a 8.5% correction. You have got to be kidding me.

More and more I am reading about investigations into mortgage fraud. I can't wait to see some of these "white collar" criminals (realtwhores) go down the next couple of years. It will be fun to hear their excuses, "but I didn't realize lying to the lender and getting 80 grand back was illegal!"...There are more than a few who be taken away in handcuffs.

Crashbabycrash said...

Quote from California Association of Realtors on Oct. 18:

"Robert Kleinhenz, the association's deputy chief economist, said he expects Bakersfield's median house price to remain flat or possibly increase slightly next year."

HaHaHaHaHaHa, well it didn't take long to prove him wrong. That is ridiculous. When are these talkng heads going to figure out it only makes them look bad and lose credibility to spew their propaganda?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I missed that one when I posted. LOL.

What a total joke! The numbers are staring them in the face and they just ignore them. I guess anything to make a commission and help someone achieve the American Nightmare!

Rob Dawg said...

Every single median buyer in Ventira County sees the median buyer last year down $72,000. Yes, seventy two thousand dollars. Wanna buy a median house?

Point being this isn't symetrical. We are falling off a cliff and most don't even see it. Worse, when they do see it we fall faster. How anyone thought we could engineer a soft landing is beyond me.

Anonymous said...

CNN/Fortune article just posted a new article and it projects Bakersfield to be 3rd worst market over the next two years (3rd worst in California 20/22 & 3rd worst in the Nation 98/100)!

Projected declines are 5.5% for 2007 and 6.6% in 2008. No mention of how much in 2009 - 2016.

Yeehaw!

thebubblebuster.com
 

Anonymous said...

I now live in CA. We've been since my wife's job transfer in Oct. 2005. It took us 11 months to find a buyer... Our RE Agent said our house should sell quickly at $834,000... We sold at $599,000 after relisting with another broker. A few weeks before we put our home on the market... the house down the street from us with almost the same floor plan and square footage sold for $815,000. That poor guy lost $235,000! At least, I still made money... made $170,000 on the house... IT"S SAFELY I THE BANK FOR NOW! I will buy when I see at least 25% down in the CA prices.

smoggiebakersfield said...

AndyfromSimi,

Did you get your numbers mixed up?

"Our RE Agent said our house should sell quickly at $834,000... We sold at $599,000 after relisting with another broker."

" That poor guy lost $235,000!"

Anonymous said...

Crispy,

Did those terrible Bakersfield numbers for the air pollution index come in today.

Anonymous said...

I just shot-up the Q3:2006 reports for Orange County, Inland Empire, Ventura, DC & New York

They join prior FREE reports on Bakersfield, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle.
thebubblebuster.com

Lou Minatti said...

Here's my projection for the decline:

HALF.

I am as much an expert as those quoted in these articles.

Merced "Going Quickly" said...

Lou,
Predict 50.5%.

I love it when these idiot's put the ".5%"

Oh, and by the way, the infamoue Scott Peterson home is in forclosure.

The owner/flipper tries to hawk it on Ebay, but it didn't work.

You can read the link here http://mercedgoingquickly.blogspot.com/